Geopolitical conflict is the theme that businesses believe will most impact them over the next 12 months, a new survey has found.

GlobalData’s ESG Sentiment Polls Q1 2025 survey found 36% of businesses believe that geopolitical conflict will be the biggest issue for them, while 35% believe inflation will remain the biggest issue. The results mean that it displaces inflation as the perceived most impactful theme for the first time in ten quarters.

There was a four percentage-point rise quarter on quarter in businesses viewing geopolitical conflict as the most significant issue facing them, up from 32% in Q4 2024. “The Trump administration’s hands-off approach to the Russia-Ukraine war has increased fears that the conflict will spread across Europe,” GlobalData, Just Drinks' parent, stated.

While the proportion of businesses citing inflation as the most significant theme facing them has fallen from a peak of 50% in Q2 2023 and from 38% in Q4 2024, it remains a major worry. “Macroeconomic concerns are at the top of the business agenda due to the tariffs the US has threatened to levy on the rest of the world, and China in particular,” the report explains.

In the face of these perceived negative threats, the share of businesses viewing environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors as a priority has remained low. Only 12% of businesses believe it will be the priority for them in the next 12 months, although that represents a 2pp rise from Q4 2024. The theme peaked at 20% in Q2 2022 before cratering to a low of 4% in Q4 2023.

Notably, however, the report says of ESG: “For the first time since polling began, pressure from investors surpassed customer pressure as a reason to develop an ESG performance plan.”

Elsewhere, it adds: “The third most impactful theme for the next year, according to respondents, was digitalisation. The adoption of AI is accelerating across many sectors, and new models from companies like China’s DeepSeek are driving innovation.”