A new just-drinks/IWSR report has forecast value growth in the coming four years for the rum sector, in spite of a continuing decline in the sector's volume performance.
The report, entitled 'Global rum insights – market forecasts, product innovation and consumer trends research' and released this week, sees total volumes in the rum sector dropping by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.73% between 2014 and 2019, representing a decline of more than 12m cases. Most of this decline, however, will occur at the low-priced end of the market.
When value and low-priced rums are stripped out, volumes are set to increase by well over 5.5m cases, reaching nearly 64.5m cases by 2019.
While large markets for locally-produced rums will decline – India and the Philippines, for example, losing a total of more than 17m cases in 2014 to 2019 – key import markets for premium rums will grow. The US, for instance, will add nearly 1.5m cases of higher-priced rums in the five-year period to 2019, with growth also coming from markets such as the Dominican Republic, Germany, France, Cuba and Italy.
The forecast trend for 2014 to 2019 will follow the regional and segment-by-segment patterns seen between 2008 and 2013, according to the report.
The global rum market is dominated by standard-and-below qualities, which accounted for 95.8% of all sales in 2013, but were down from a 97% share in 2009. Premium-and-above qualities, meanwhile, accounted for a substantial 6m cases in 2013, up from 4.15m cases in 2009.
While the low-price (+1% CAGR), value (+1% CAGR) and standard (+1.5% CAGR) segments recorded moderate growth between 2008 and 2013, higher qualities such as premium (+7.8% CAGR), super-premium (+9.2% CAGR) and ultra-premium (+48.1% CAGR) all "outpaced the market", the report states.
While the white rum category was virtually flat between 2008 and 2013, recording a CAGR of -0.3%, golden rum posted a CAGR of 2% between 2008 and 2013.
Other future growth engines identified in the report are flavoured rum and spiced rum, which recorded compound annual growth rates of 8% and 9% respectively between 2008 and 2013.