The revised projection was largely attributed to higher productivity in conilon coffee. Credit: Tong_stocker/Shutterstock.com.

Brazil has upped its forecast for the country’s 2025 coffee output despite the year being in the low part of the typical production cycle.

Government body Conab projects Brazil’s coffee production will come in at 55.7 million bags, an increase of 2.7% over the previous year’s output.

“If the estimated volume is confirmed at the end of the cycle, this will be the largest ever recorded for a year of low biennial production,” the agency said.

The biennial cycle of production of arabica coffee sees output alternates between years of low and high output.

In January, Conab had forecast production of 51.81 million bags, which would have represented a 4.4% decline year on year.

Conab pinned its new forecast on the higher production of conilon coffee, which is a variety of robusta.

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Brazil is forecast to produce 18.7 million bags of conilon coffee, a level that Conab said would be more than 28% above average.

The agency cited “regular climate” conditions during critical crop phases, which contributed to “positive” flowering and a “good quality” of fruits per rosette.

Arabica production in Brazil is expected to decline by 6.6%, with a projected harvest of approximately 37 million bags. Conab said arabica was impacted by an extended dry period in 2024.

Conab also reported a marginal expansion in the total area dedicated to coffee cultivation, which is expected to rise by 0.8% to 2.25 million hectares.

However, the area in production is projected to fall by 1.4% to 1.86 million hectares.

The area under development is set to increase by 12.3%, consistent with patterns observed during biennial downturns.

Between January and March, Brazil exported 11.7 million 60kg bags of coffee, down 1% from the same period in 2024, the data revealed.

The drop was linked to constrained domestic stocks during the initial months of 2025, following “record” exports in 2024, when Brazil shipped 50.5 million bags.

Despite the lower volume, export revenues rose significantly due to high global coffee prices.

Total export earnings reached $4.1bn in the first quarter of 2025, marking a 68.9% surge year-on-year.

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