European wine production is forecast to edge up by 1% in 2025, according to farming union Copa-Cogeca.
According to data collated by the union from EU member states, European wine producers are expected to deliver around 145.5 million hectolitres (mhl) this year.
Despite volumes recovering slightly, they remain 7.5% below the five-year average, Copa-Cogeca said. It added that longer-term decline persists, with the gap between this year's harvest versus 2018 exceeding 40mhl.
The EU’s three largest producers - Italy, France and Spain, which together account for roughly 80% of total output, have are expected to see their combined volumes drop 1.5% compared with 2024.
Italy is set to remain the largest producer, with estimated production volumes of 47mhl for 2025, followed by France at about 37mhl, and Spain at approximately 31.5mhl. Italy's volumes are expected to represent an increase of 8% on the year prior, while France's are anticipated to grow 2.3%, although the latter's output remains 12% below the five-year average.
Among the bloc's main wine producers, Spain, Germany, and Portugal are projected to see production volumes year-on-year drop by 15%, 8%, and 11%, respectively.
Germany has this year called on the EU to consider expanding its plan for winemakers to grub-up vineyards as the bloc tries to support a sector facing falling consumption.
In March, Brussels set out a range of proposals, including removing vineyards, in the face of declining wine sales.
In June, the European Council, the EU institution composed of the 27 member state governments, gave its backing to the package, albeit with suggested changes in other areas including labelling and rules for no-and-low wines.
However, in a submission to the EU’s Agriculture and Fisheries Council, the German government has suggested Brussels should go further on grubbing-up.
Copa-Cogeca, which represents farmers in the EU, said weather-related disruption has continued to weigh on vineyards across Europe in 2025, with heatwaves, drought and floods making recovery to pre-2020 levels difficult.
Wildfires in late August in southern France burned more than a thousand hectares of vineyards.
The EU farmers' lobby also said that the tariffs on goods including wine imposed by the US have affected exports, which has in turn limited "any significant increase in production".
The EU and US secured a trade deal at the end of July, however neither side was able to agree on an exemption for wine at spirits.
According to the farmers' lobby, this policy has kept volumes and prices low and eroded profit margins for EU producers. Those trade measures have also coincided with wider global instability that has disrupted global commercial activity.
Copa-Cogeca added that overall demand is still "weak", as inflation concerns and labour market uncertainty weigh on spending, while domestic markets are seeing a notable shift in consumer preferences.
Luca Rigotti, president of the Copa-Cogeca’s working party on wine, said: “The 2025 harvest highlights just how challenging conditions remain. Our vineyards often face circumstances that are far from ideal. Yet, in many cases, producers have managed to reverse the recent downward trend.
“Across Europe, winegrowers are delivering exceptional quality, demonstrating remarkable dedication and resilience in the face of numerous challenges.”
