The conflict in the Middle East has “severely disrupted” global fertiliser trade, heightening risks for wider food security, a World Trade Organization report has said.
The WTO said several economies in Africa and Asia are “particularly vulnerable” to fertiliser shortages and rising prices linked to the crisis.
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It warned weaker fertiliser availability could hurt crop production, creating “potential knock-on effects” for food prices and global food security.
According to the report, fertiliser-related outbound shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to destinations beyond the Persian Gulf fell to a “standstill” after the conflict began and have stayed “close to zero” ever since.
Prices surged sharply in the immediate aftermath. Urea, which had traded at about $400 per metric tonne (mt), climbed to more than $850/mt in April before retreating to $453/mt in June.
Diammonium phosphate (DAP) also rose, moving from roughly $580/mt to around $770/mt.
The levels remain below the peaks seen in 2022 after the Ukraine war began, when urea briefly topped $900/mt, DAP neared $960/mt and potash exceeded $1,200/mt.
The report said global fertiliser exports are “highly concentrated” among a limited number of suppliers.
Gulf economies account for 24.8% of worldwide nitrogenous fertiliser exports and 11.4% of phosphatic fertiliser exports, though they play almost no role in potash.
Asia receives 40% of nitrogenous fertiliser exports from the Gulf, while 48% of the region’s phosphatic shipments go there. Russia, China and Morocco were also identified as “major suppliers”.
India was among the countries “particularly exposed”, sourcing nearly two-thirds of its nitrogenous fertiliser imports from the Gulf region, while Thailand gets close to half from the same area, the WTO said.
Australia, Brazil, Morocco and the US were also listed as major destinations.
The agency identified 18 economies, including Kenya, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Brazil, and Sri Lanka, as especially vulnerable to disruptions in nitrogenous fertiliser supplies from the Gulf.
The report also said export licences, restrictions and bans imposed after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have further tightened supply.
Such measures may affect up to 15% of world fertiliser exports, rising to 23.3% if the closure is treated as effectively restricting all Gulf fertiliser shipments, the WTO said.
Still, the WTO believes the real export decline is “likely to be lower”. Export licensing requirements, it said, do not amount to a complete export ban.
The WTO added that reopening the Strait of Hormuz would help ease trade frictions and bring greater stability to global markets, while policy responses should reflect the vulnerability of developing economies in Asia and Africa.
