A representative of the Australian Wine & Brandy Corporation (AWBC) has warned that the industry faces a shortage of wine for export markets in the next three to four years, in spite of the current glut of red wines.

Lawrie Stanford, manager of information and analysis at the AWBC, also said that in the long term, the industry would face a lower and more sustainable rate of growth.

But most interesting was Stanford’s prediction of a shortage at the existing growth rates in sales and current plantings.

The net increase in plantings in the spring of 2001 was 3,900 hectares, up 20% from 2000 but still well below the high seen in 1998 of 14,000 hectares. “In the medium term, if plantings continue at the current rate and if sales continue at the current rate we’ll be facing shortages,” Stanford said. “The surplus of reds should work its way through the system in three to four seasons.”