As in 2020, baiju brands claim the top five positions of the 2021 most valuable spirits list. Moutai retains the number one spot thanks to a 15% year-on-year brand value increase to US$45.3bn.

Wuliangye follows Moutai with a 24% year-on-year increase and Yanghe retains its position in third, despite an 8% slide in the same period. In fact, Yanghe is the only brand in the top five to record a brand value drop for 2021, as Luzhou Laojiao and fifth place Gujing Gong Jiu recorded lifts of 25% and 22% respectively.

The latter’s success pushes a 17%-down Jack Daniel’s into sixth place with a $3.4bn valuation.

Elsewhere in the top ten, Diageo’s Johnnie Walker Scotch whisky slides four spots to tenth while its Smirnoff vodka brand remains unchanged on last year.

Methodology

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1. Review brands’ existing royalty agreements and analyse how brands impact profitability in the sector versus generic brands, resulting in a range of possible royalties that could be charged for them in the sector (for example a range of 0% to 2% of sales).

2. Examine three of the brand’s metrics to establish a strength score out of 100 which contributes to total brand value:

  • ‘Inputs’ - activities supporting the future strength of the brand
  • ‘Equity’ - feedback from market research and other data partners
  • ‘Output’ - performance measures such as market share

3. The strength score (point 2) is then applied to the royalty range (point 1) to give a royalty rate. For example, if the royalty range in a sector is 0%-to-5% and a brand has a Brand Strength Index score of 80 out of 100, then the royalty rate of this brand will be 4%.

4. Determine brand-specific revenues estimating a proportion of parent company revenues attributable to a specific brand.

5. Determine forecast brand-specific revenues using a function of historic revenues, equity analyst forecasts and economic growth rates.

6. Apply the royalty rate to the forecast revenues to derive brand revenues.

7. Brand revenues are discounted post-tax to a net present value which equals the brand value.

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