Australia’s gin market is set to surpass US$700m by 2028 though its growth could be outpaced by rum, vodka and Tequila, data suggests.
In 2023, the market was worth $547m and 489,000 nine-litre cases (4.04 million litres) were sold, according to research and analysis company GlobalData.
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By 2028, the category could swell to $728m, equivalent to around 566,000 nine-litre cases – and a CAGR of 5.91% in value terms.
However, this growth is dwarfed by the anticipated growth of rum, which is set to see an 11.97% five-year CAGR in value terms in 2028 from a much higher base (in 2028, the Australian rum market is expected to be worth $2.48bn).
GlobalData analyst David Harris said while gin’s growth cannot yet be called a “boom” in Australia – as it has been in countries like the UK – the category is “well placed to see sustained growth and even possibly outperform our forecasts”.
He cited growing cocktail demand, particularly from Gen Z, “healthy” on-premise demand for spirits and a resurgence of craft/artisanal spirits as key influences behind GlobalData's outlook for Australia's gin market.
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By GlobalData“Despite this, gin is forecast to grow by less than 50% of its overall size. This is far smaller than rum, vodka, and FABs*, all of which are more established categories,” he added.
This week, Asahi Group Holdings bought Australian gin distiller Never Never for an undisclosed fee.
The Japanese company’s Australian arm, Asahi Beverages, will sell and distribute Never Never’s gins through its local alcohol division Carlton & United Breweries (CUB).
George Georgiadis, Never Never co-founder and managing director, said: “This partnership allows us to realise our vision by helping change, and also grow, Australia’s gin market, where around 80% of gin Australians drink is imported – despite Australia being home to some absolutely cracking gin brands.”
It follows Asahi peer Kirin’s acquisition of Australian spirits maker Four Pillars through its Oceania division, Lion, last summer.
Harris said while gin’s growth in Australia “isn’t outstanding compared to other spirits categories, I think Asahi are counting on positive outlook long term and will attempt to cater to younger drinking-age consumers which will in turn drive gin growth further”.
*GlobalData, Just Drinks' parent, describes flavoured-alcoholic beverages (FABs) as: low-alcohol spirit mixes, often vodka or rum-based but may also be made with any spirit or neutral alcohol. Sometimes known as “alcopops”, in the US, these products are usually made with malt-derived alcohol, known as “malternatives” (to beer). The classification includes fruit-based drinks, pre-mixed versions of classic cocktails, wine coolers and Japanese Chu-Hiproducts (based on shochu).
