Italy and the US are expected to drive a modest rebound in global wine production in 2025, according to a new report from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV).
In its first estimates for 2025, the OIV has forecast global wine production to reach between 228 and 235 million hectolitres (mhl).
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Its mid-range estimate of around 232 mhl marks a 3% hike on weak 2024 harvest volumes, but which is still 7% below the five year global average.
According to OIV’s initial estimates, Italy is set to remain the largest wine producer worldwide, with production volumes estimated to sit at 47.4mhl, an 8% increase on last year.
The rise follows two subdued vintages in 2023 and, to a lesser degree, 2024, and places this year’s production roughly 2% above its five-year average.
OIV attributed the improvement to a “mild spring, balanced rainfall, and a summer that was overall not excessively hot”.
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By GlobalDataThe US, the world’s fourth-largest wine producer according to the OIV, is forecast to see volumes reach 21.7mhl, a 3% rise on 2024, though still 9% short of its five-year average and well under historical highs.
The estimate is based on state-level harvest data from Washington, Oregon and California which in total make up 85-90% of US wine-grape production. According to the OIV’s findings, California is expected to see 4% growth in yields in 2025 and Oregon is forecasted to see a significant 30% increase. Washington state however is expected to register a 21% decline.
France meanwhile is expected to produce 35.9mhl in 2025, marking a second year of “historically” low volumes and sitting about 16% beneath its five-year average due to the “combined effects of heat and drought”.
Spain is estimated to book 29.4mhl in volumes, a 6% drop year-on-year and about 15% below its five-year baseline.
Beyond France and Spain, multiple European Union vintners are projected to face declines in 2025.
Germany is expected to see 2025 volumes drop 6% on 2024 to 7.3mhl, driven by intense rainfall in September.
Portugal’s volumes for the year are also expected to dip 11% to 6.2mhl, due to extreme weather conditions, from drought to rain and heatwaves.
OIV said the 2025 climatic pattern highlights the “increasing variability between and within hemispheres, with favourable conditions in some areas insufficient to offset weather-related losses elsewhere”.
The intergovernmental organisation said the expected volumes in 2025 for Northern Hemisphere producers outside the EU were “mixed”.
Meanwhile Southern Hemisphere production volumes are expected to be up 7% on 2024, at 49mhl, as improved conditions in South Africa, Australia, New Zealand and Brazil offset a 10% drop in Chile.
Australia is projected to see volumes sit around 11.6mhl in the year, up 11% from last year but 2% below its five-year average, regaining its position as the Southern Hemisphere’s largest producer.
Commenting on the market, OIV said: “Against a backdrop of weakened global demand and elevated inventories in several mature markets, a third consecutive year of below-average production tends to ease pressure on stock rather than create widespread supply tension.
“Overall, 2025 points to a slightly tighter but still balanced global market, with price and trade effects likely to remain sector- and region-specific rather than generalised.”
