This time six years ago, Scotch whisky was in a pretty good spot. Export shipments in 2019 had ticked up close to the £5bn ($6.75bn) barrier, with the equivalent of 1.3bn bottles sold outside the UK. Shipments to the US – already comfortably Scotch’s most important export destination – hit £1.07bn, despite a 25% slump in the fourth quarter, prompted by the introduction of a 25% import tariff. Only that, plus worrying news about a new respiratory virus emerging in China, took the gloss off the numbers.
Back to today, and what do we see? In 2025, once again, Scotch export shipments totalled about 1.3bn bottles, practically identical to 2019’s performance. Exports by value last year were 9.2% higher than in 2019, at £5.36bn, but factor in inflation and Scotch has stood still, or even declined slightly, over the past six years.
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That broad analysis ignores, of course, the ups and downs of the intervening period, from the Covid-19 pandemic to the unsustainable growth bubble that ensued, followed by some pretty grim trading conditions in the US, Asia-Pacific and Latin America. It is arguably the most volatile period that Scotch has faced in modern times.
In that context – and against the backdrop of distilleries falling silent and laying people off – the 2025 numbers may look almost reassuring for the industry. Down less than 1% in value and just over 4% in volume, with continued difficulties in the US and China counterbalanced by notable gains in India and Türkiye.
The US remains the elephant in the room. Since the implementation of the 10% import tariff in April 2025, exports have fallen by 15%, echoing the fall-off experienced back in the fourth quarter of 2019. The impact of the Trump administration’s protectionist policies is clear to see but I’d argue that Scotch’s travails in the US predate the President’s second term.
Even back in 2019, a disconnect between volume and value was apparent. While shipment value rose by 3% that year, volumes fell by 7%. Following the slump of the main Covid years in 2020-21, recovery came in 2022 but even then shipments were practically identical to those recorded in 2018.
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By GlobalDataSuccess in the US was largely built on gains for single malts but their rising prices have proved to be out of tune with the realities of the post-Covid, post-Ukraine invasion cost-of-living crisis. Right now, blends just aren’t sexy Stateside, so it’s just as well that distillers have other, less judgemental markets to exploit.
India is the obvious example. Since 2019, shipments here have surged 72% by value and 68% by volume, elevating the country to a clear top spot in volume terms, at the equivalent of 220m bottles shipped last year, and third by value, behind only the US and France.
And all of that even before the impact of the free-trade agreement signed between the UK and India, which should kick in over the coming months. We’ve said before that competition is fierce on the sub-continent and India remains a long-term growth project for the category but Scotch is in a prime position to succeed in a whisky-mad country of 932m people (drinking age population) and rising.
The growth in Türkiye is even more eye-catching. Back in 2019, only 15m bottles of Scotch were shipped there, with a relatively paltry value of £47m. Last year, those numbers had grown exponentially to 53m bottles and £255m, with value up 43% on 2024 and 443% versus 2019.
In announcing the 2025 export shipments, the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) voiced caution on Türkiye, pointing out that exports had been boosted “as the industry navigated regulatory changes and global conditions”. More measured growth is likely in the years ahead, the SWA added.
That characterised a pretty downbeat commentary on the export numbers from the trade body, which continues to lobby the Starmer government in the UK to ease the pressures on distillers. All very well lowering tariffs in India and China, the SWA argument runs, but companies won’t reap the full benefits while domestic tax and regulatory burdens remain so punitive.
In recognition of the difficult trading conditions experienced around the world, the SWA is fighting on multiple fronts, pushing for a deal to return to zero-tariff trade to the US, alongside deals with Thailand, the Mercosur countries of South America and the cash-rich nations that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council in the Middle East.
Given the developments over the past few days, there seems to be little prospect of US tariffs being withdrawn. And what about the old Boeing-Airbus 25% tariff, suspended five years ago but potentially to be reintroduced this July? A 40% tariff would be a disaster for Scotch, even if all those other trade deals around the world come off.
There’s one other aspect of Scotch’s recent export evolution that’s worth mentioning: the relationship between single malts and blends. While the latter has always dominated in terms of volume, the former has been the main growth engine for the industry in recent years, reaching a high water mark of £2bn in exports in 2023, or 36% of the total.
Since then, however, the value of single malt exports has shrunk by one-fifth, falling by another 6% last year to reach £1.6bn – scarcely higher than the figure recorded back in 2019. And blends? They’ve stuck fast at around £3.1bn-3.2bn over the past three years, building their overall export value share back to 60% in 2025.
For all that the likes of Glenfiddich, The Glenlivet, The Macallan and Glenmorangie might hog the headlines, the sub-category they inhabit is now only half the size of blends in value terms – and a lot less than that by volume. Both products will have their part to play as Scotch navigates the troubled waters ahead – but it is blended Scotch that remains the heartbeat of the industry.
