Wine production in EU countries is forecast to drop by 4% this year’s wine harvest, according to farming union Copa-Cogeca.
Data collated by the group from EU member states estimates total production volumes in the 2026/27 “marketing year” will reach 133.6 million hectolitres (mhl),
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That is a 4% drop on an estimated 139.2mhl in the previous year’s harvest and roughly 8% below the five-year average.
The projected decline reverses the modest recovery Copa-Cogeca anticipated a year ago, when the group forecast 2025 volumes would edge up to 145.5mhl.
Copa-Cogeca said the sector is “navigating increasingly unpredictable weather conditions while adapting to profound shifts in consumption patterns”, which are “redefining the future of European viticulture”.
The EU’s three largest producers – Italy, Spain, and France – are expected to account for approximately 82% of total output.
Italy is forecast to remain the bloc’s largest producer at an estimated 41.1mhl, down 7.6% year-on-year and around 10% below its five-year average. Southern regions, particularly Sicily and Abruzzo, were hit hardest by drought and heatwaves.
In June, Italy’s main trade body for wine producers called for cuts in production due to an “imbalance between supply and demand”.
Spain is expected to be one of the only EU countries to see production volumes rise. They are expected to increase 3.7% to 34.5mhl. However, Copa-Cogeca warned that an 8% fall in domestic consumption and weaker export demand continue to depress prices, particularly for red wines, hurting vineyard profitability.
French production is estimated to sit at 33.8mhl, which would be down 2.1% year-on-year and 15% below its five-year average.
The contraction comes as France pursues a vineyard pull-out programme, with 20,000 hectares scheduled for grubbing-up in 2026 following 40,000 hectares uprooted since 2024.
Germany, which previously urged Brussels to expand EU-wide grubbing-up initiatives, is projected to produce 7.3mhl, down 3.3%. Amid a 10.2% drop in third-quarter sales volumes, German authorities have activated crisis distillation and vine-removal measures.
The production drop coincides with contracting demand.
Copa-Cogeca estimated global wine consumption will sit at 221mhl, the lowest level in over three decades, with the EU’s share of global demand slipping from 60% in 2000 to 48%.
Extra-EU exports between September 2025 and August 2026 fell 6.8% in value to €15.4bn ($17.02bn) and 3.3% in volume to 27.5mhl.
Luca Rigotti, Copa-Cogeca Working Party on Wine president, said: “We are facing increasingly unpredictable climatic conditions, rising production costs driven by conflicts and geopolitical tensions, a structural decline in wine consumption, and new barriers to trade and market access.”
Rigotti added that securing the industry’s future requires “investing in innovation, sustainability, and the promotion of quality, while diversifying our offer, exploring new markets, and rebuilding a positive connection with consumers, particularly younger generations”.
