Wine consumption in the EU is expected to continue falling over the next ten years driven by ongoing changes in how and what people drink, according to new findings from the European Commission.
The group’s EU Agricultural Outlook 2025-35 expects wine consumption in the EU will decline 0.9% a year until 2035 to roughly 19.3 litres per capita, a 9% decrease on consumption per capita between 2021 and 2025.
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According to the report, the factors pulling down consumption appear to be consumer concerns about health, policies that back moderate drinking for health reasons and growing competition from other drinks.
Reflecting on how consumption habits were changing, the Commission highlighted younger drinkers “in particular” tended to consume less alcohol. It also noted a preference, more broadly, for consuming more “upmarket” wines.
While the level of decline is not the same across EU countries, nations that have in the past had high wine drinking levels are seeing some of the largest decreases, such as France and Germany.
The EU is also seeing growing sales of “wine-based drinks” such as no- and low-alcohol wines but sales volumes are predicted to “remain small”.
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By GlobalDataDeclines in consumption are also being seen in some of the EU’s key export markets, like the US and UK. Consequently, the report expects EU wine production could decline 0.5% a year over the next decade, which would see output fall to 138 million hectolitres.
The report also said a “projected reduction in vineyard areas of 0.6% per year between now and 2035” could be a “major reason” for a future decline in production, “assuming weather conditions and thus average yields remain stable”.
Winemakers across the EU are being impacted by a wine glut and several countries have called on the bloc to take action to support “grubbing-up” initiatives, such as France and Germany.
In December, members of the European Parliament (MEPs) and the European Council reached a preliminary agreement on a set of measures to support the EU’s wine sector, which included an agreement on using EU funding to support vine uprooting plans.
The Commission’s latest agricultural report also stressed wine export growth is at risk. It pointed to the EU being “temporarily” impacted by decreasing shipments to the US, which is the bloc’s primary export market for wine.
EU wine exports are expected to drop 0.6% a year between 2025 and 2035. Imports are anticipated to be down 1.9% a year.
The UK, which is the EU’s second-largest market for exports, is also seeing declines in shipments, the report said.
Though other markets like Latin America and Africa are seeing a growing demand for EU wine, it will not be enough to sufficiently steady the bloc’s exports, the report added.
