Boston Beer Co. has said its depletions and shipments could decline again this year.
The Samuel Adams brewer yesterday (24 February) warned investors both sales metrics could fall in 2026 after they decreased last year.
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Boston Beer’s forecasts came in below Wall Street forecasts. Analysts at Bernstein said the guidance “both surprises and disappoints”, although they described the company’s projection for gross margins “a positive surprise”.
The US drinks group has projected its depletions and shipments in 2026 will range from flat year-on-year to “down mid-single digits”. In 2025, depletions fell 4% and shipments dropped 4.7%.
“We were pleased to deliver on our financial commitments in 2025 while maintaining market share in a challenging operating environment,” Boston Beer chairman, founder and CEO Jim Koch said.
“Looking ahead, we are highly focused on operational excellence, including investing in our portfolio of iconic brands, developing a strong innovation pipeline and continuing to execute on our multi-year productivity initiatives. We believe this disciplined focus positions us to improve performance over time and create long-term value for shareholders.”
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By GlobalDataKoch, Boston Beer’s CEO from 1984 to 2001, returned to the chief executive role in August after Michael Spillane stood down to “focus on important personal matters”, Boston Beer said at the time.
In the 12 months to 27 December, the Twisted Tea owner’s net revenue decreased 2.4% to $1.97bn.
The decline in shipments was “primarily” due to decreases in Twisted Tea, Truly Hard Seltzer and Samuel Adams brands, Boston Beer said. It added shipments of Sun Cruiser, Angry Orchard and Dogfish Head grew.
Operating income jumped from just under $76m in the company’s 2024 financial year to $144.9m. Boston Beer’s cost of goods sold declined year on year while it also lapped higher impairment charges.
Annual net income stood at $108.5m versus $59.7m a year earlier. Excluding the impact of non-cash brand impairment and contract settlement charges in the 2024 financial year, Boston Beer’s net income decreased 2.5%.
“2025 was a year of continued progress for Boston Beer, highlighted by meaningful gross margin improvement and strong cash generation, while significantly increasing advertising support behind our brands,” CFO Diego Reynoso said. “In 2026, we expect continued progress on our multi-year supply chain initiatives which will be reinvested to support our brands.”
In a note to clients, Bernstein analyst Nadine Sarwat said the consensus forecast among Wall Street analysts was for Boston Beer’s depletions and shipments to be flat in 2026. Bernstein had been projecting a 1.4% decline.
However, Sarwat said Boston Beer’s fourth-quarter gross margins of 43.5% beat Wall Street forecasts – as did the company’s guidance for that metric in 2026.
“The big positive surprise is gross margin guidance of 48% to 50%, including tariff headwinds, higher at the midpoint than our/consensus expectations of circa 48.2%,” Sarwat said.
“This is a testament to Boston Beer’s current management and their initiatives which have resulted in circa 600 basis points of gross margin expansion over the last two years despite significant top-line uncertainty.”
