Nearly two years since Carlsberg and Heineken joined forces to buy and carve up Scottish & Newcastle, it is hard to see what the Netherlands-based brewer got from the deal.

Apart from a super-premium headache, that is.

While Heineken yesterday (23 February) bemoaned sluggish demand for beer in core western markets, Carlsberg saw its share price skip after predicting that profits will rise by a further 20% in 2010.

Both brewers have been hit by consumers trading down to cheaper beers in their main markets, with beer volume sales down mid single digits in 2009 and net sales propped up at the bar by price increases.

However, Carlsberg has emerged from yesterday as the favoured brewer of the two.

When one looks back to the GBP7.8bn Scottish & Newcastle deal in 2008, it is hard to see how Heineken sought to benefit.

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Yes, Carlsberg got France – a tough market – but it also obtained all of the growth markets, taking control of its joint venture with S&N in Eastern Europe, as well as S&N operations in China and Vietnam.

Heineken, meanwhile, obtained S&N’s UK and Ireland assets, as well as Belgium, Portugal and Greece.

Now, you might say it has been Heineken’s misfortune that the economic downturn hit these mature markets particularly badly, Ireland especially so.

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