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International brands will increase their overall share of the world's spirits market going forward, to the detriment of local spirits, according to a recent forecast.

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The IWSR Forecast Report 2013-2018, released this week, says that whisk(e)y, vodka and rum will be the main winners in the short- to medium-term. Imported spirits are expected to post a 3% CAGR between this year and 2013, the report claims, while domestic spirits brands will deliver a slower CAGR of 1.3%.

While baijiu, the white spirit produced in China, will continue to deliver volume rises over the next four years, these increases will be at a more moderate rate to the last ten years. Meanwhile, the move in India from domestic product to Indian-Made Foreign Liquor is “largely over for now”, according to the report. And, in Russia, governmental efforts to reduce overall alcohol consumption has “pushed a great deal of consumption back to the grey market”.

“The slowdown in growth of local spirits will lead to a decline in the rate of growth of spirits overall,” says The IWSR in the report. “The CAGR of total spirits consumption is forecast to drop from 6.4% between 2007 and 2012 to 1.5% between 2012 and 2018.”

International spirits, with whisk(e)y, vodka and rum gaining special mention, should increase their share of the overall spirits market to 12.3% in 2018, from 11.3% last year. Global consumption is expected to reach 3.37bn cases by 2018.

For further details on the forecast report, click here.


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