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CHINA: Golden Week sales slowdown could cause spirits stocking problems - analyst

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Overstocking ahead of China's National Day holidays could hurt spirits producers in Q4 as inventories are tweaked, an analyst has said.

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Retail sales for the week-long holiday grew by 15% year-on-year, Kepler Capital Markets said in a note today (8 October) citing state figures. Last year, sales during the holiday increased 17.5% year-on-year.

“We had indicated that the consumption trends of premium spirits in China during the Golden Week would be key, as our industry sources had pointed to slightly too high levels of inventories into the Chinese wholesale,” the note said. “What the first figures on the Golden Week could suggest is that, even if underlying growth trends remain good, Q4 sell-in could be affected by some destocking.”

Kepler said the new figures confirm a “modest but effective slowdown” in the Chinese economy.

The National Day holiday includes National Day on 1 October and the Mid-Autumn Festival, which was held this year on 30 September to 7 October.

Last month, an analyst said Cognac is expected to report a "temporary slowdown" in China towards the end of this year. 


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