News

China beer, wine demand to drop one-fifth in Q1 as coronavirus impact widens - analyst

Most popular

Mangrove MD warns of coronavirus impact on spirits

Advice for brewers in the time of COVID-19

Could coronavirus make for more caring companies?

Provenance and quality not enough for spirits - II

Coronavirus special - US Distilled Spirits Council

MORE

Wine and beer demand in China will be down about 20% in the first quarter of the year, an analyst has said, as the impact of the coronavirus outbreak increases in severity.

Bernstein said the Chinese lockdown caused by the coronavirus outbreak is now more broad-based and protracted

Bernstein said the Chinese lockdown caused by the coronavirus outbreak is now more broad-based and protracted

In a note to clients today, Bernstein's Euan McLeish said premium wine demand is estimated to fall by 21% in the first three months of the year compared to the year prior. Beer demand, meanwhile, will decrease by as much as 18%.

The estimates come as Bernstein upgrades the likely impact of the virus - called Covid-19 - compared to a forecast last month. The analyst said the coronavirus impact across all of China is now on a par with the peak of SARS in Hong Kong in 2002-03.

"Covid-19 is resulting in a more broad-based and protracted lockdown of consumers across China than anticipated when we first published on the topic three weeks ago," McLeish said. "We have now updated our China models to reflect a demand impact as severe as the peak of Hong Kong SARS, not only in the most infected areas as we previously assumed, but across the country."

According to McLeish, domestic brewers Tsingtao and China Resources Beer will be worst affected by the coronavirus because of their smaller margins compared to Anheuser-Busch InBev's China operations. China Resources Beer partners with Heineken in the country.

The coronavirus has killed around 1,800 people in China and brought parts of the country to a standstill. According to the New York Times today, one-tenth of the population in China is under government restrictions on how often they can leave their homes. In some regions, district authorities are only allowing one member of a household out for a few hours every few days to buy essentials such as food.

The Times also said half of China - equivalent to 10% of the global population - faces some form of travel restriction.

How will the coronavirus impact the beverage industry? - Click here for a just-drinks focus


Sectors: Beer & cider, Wine

Expert Analysis

Still Wine (Wines) Market in China - Outlook to 2022: Market Size, Growth and Forecast Analytics

Still Wine (Wines) Market in China - Outlook to 2022: Market Size, Growth and Forecast Analytics

Still Wine (Wines) Market in China - Outlook to 2022: Market Size, Growth and Forecast Analytics is a broad level market review of Still Wine market in China.

VIEW REPORT

Related Content

Coronavirus impact on China consumption to last months - forecast

Coronavirus impact on China consumption to last months - forecast...

Coronavirus to have

Coronavirus to have "very low impact" on spirits in Global Travel Retail - Dufry CEO...

Coronavirus to cut Diageo FY sales by up to US$422m - trading update

Coronavirus to cut Diageo FY sales by up to US$422m - trading update...

The Coca-Cola Co reassures market over coronavirus repercussions

The Coca-Cola Co reassures market over coronavirus repercussions...

Oops! This article is copy protected.

Why can’t I copy the text on this page?

The ability to copy articles is specially reserved for people who are part of a group membership.

How do I become a group member?

To find out how you and your team can copy and share articles and save money as part of a group membership call Sean Clinton on
+44 (0)1527 573 736 or complete this form..



Forgot your password?