Global Beverage Forecasts March 2014
Global Beverage Forecasts March 2014
Published by Canadean, Global Beverage Forecasts provides consumption trends 1999 to 2013 provisional and 2014 to 2019 forecasts for key beverage categories.
Introduction and Landscape
Why was the report written?
This bi-annual report from Canadean is designed to show past consumption trends for all commercial beverage categories and forecast trends five years into the future. Product analysis is broken down into 30 categories: packaged water, bulk/HOD water, carbonates, juice, nectars, still drinks, squash/syrups, fruit powders, iced/rtd tea drinks, iced/rtd coffee drinks, sports drink, energy drinks, hot tea, hot coffee, beer, sorghum beer, cider, spirits, wine, fortified wine, sake, rice wine, FABs, dairy drinks (white milk, fermented milk, drinking yogurt, flavoured milk, soymilk, evaporated and condensed milk).
What is the current market landscape and what is changing?
The current economic environment remains gloomy in western markets and Eurozone countries are having a particularly turbulent ride. Fortunes will be mixed for the beverage industry in the coming years, but emerging markets continue to hold great potential.
What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?
The key driving force behind commercial beverages remains Asia, with China and India leading the way. The growing consumer base and rising disposable incomes levels is fuelling growth in these markets. Health awareness, particularly regarding sugar content in beverages and price- sensitivity are important global trends.
What makes this report unique and essential to read?
The report facilitates valuable data comparisons, enabling the user to monitor the development of commercial beverages over time by category and determine share of throat. It is an essential aid for anyone interested in the beverage industry.
Key Features and Benefits
Data for 30 individual beverage categories, covering historical trends (1999-2013 provisional & 2014-2019 forecast provided in excel).
Data measures in million litres and litres per capita
Supporting analysis for the individual beverage categories
Canadean's Global Beverage Forecasts includes data tables for 83 markets in eight regions : Africa, Asia, Australasia, Latin America, East Europe, Middle East & North Africa, North America and West Europe.
Regional summaries and a global overview are also included plus supporting text for 53 markets.
Key Market Issues
Global economic uncertainty will still stifle growth in many markets and act to dissuade investment in riskier, usually more innovative products. This means that even after a recovery has been established there could still be some ‘lag’ between growth in economies and growth in the soft drinks market, especially for the younger demographics that are attracted to innovative products.
The Beer segment is seeing declines in many important markets and muted uptake in markets that could have been important for future growth, for example the younger generation in Japan are showing a lack of interest in the category.
Continued political turmoil and change in the certain region, such Egypt’s second coup in five years or the renewed threat of a coup in Thailand for example, creates an atmosphere that can make producers, especially international players, slightly more hesitant to invest.
Health scares have and will negatively impact the sales of certain drinks, for example the proposed or enacted sugar taxes in various European nations and the scare in Kuwait caused when a teenager died after drinking energy drinks, a category that already struggles with image.
Certain governments that are struggling to recover from the economic crises may begin to use quotas and bans to protect national industries at the cost of importing countries, for example the Ukraine and Russia have been weighing the idea of limiting Belarusian milk products.
Coffee products are fairly mature however there has been promising signs of growth by utilising new distribution channels such as coffee lounges and premix vending machines.
Health awareness and concerns have impacted the consumption patterns in a number of key markets in recent years for example sports drinks in Vietnam grew by 35%.
Packaged and Bulk water products and services are seeing an increase in regions such as Eastern Europe due to the lower quality of tap water.
Providing milk to school children has become popular and can drive volume growth, such as in Turkey were a programme helped the White Milk grow by 2% in 2013.
Certain markets, especially in Asia and Africa, have seen a notable increase in demand for carbonates; for example in Nigeria demand can outstrip the local ability to produce.
Beverage Consumption Data Tables
Data Horizon 1999-2013P PROVISIONAL & 2014F-2019F FORECASTS
Measures: Volume (million litres), Population (millions), Litres Per Capita
AFRICA: Nigeria, South Africa, Other Africa
ASIA: China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Other Asia
AUSTRALASIA: Australia, New Zealand, Other Australasia
LATIN AMERICA: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela, Other Latin America
EAST EUROPE: Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine, Other East Europe
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA (MENA): Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Other MENA
NORTH AMERICA: Canada, United States of America
WEST EUROPE: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, (Republic of) Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Other West Europe
For regions where it has not been possible to generate total market volumes by profiling each individual country, specifically Central & South America, Asia, Middle East/North Africa and Rest of Africa, we have taken a value judgement to arrive at a balancing “Others” figure. This is recorded as a separate entity, specific to the Region to which it belongs
Main beverage category groups: Soft (standard), Soft (extended), Beer, Spirits (standard), Spirits (extended) and Wines.
Individual beverage categories within each main group are as follows:
Soft (standard): Packaged Water, Carbonates, Juice (100% pure juice), Nectars (products with a 25-99% juice content), Still Drinks (<25% juice content), Squash/Syrups, Fruit Powders, Iced/Ready To Drink (RTD) Tea, Iced/Ready To Drink (RTD) Coffee, Sports Drinks, Energy Drinks. Packaged Water excludes all water sold in large containers of >10 litres
Soft (extended): Bulk/HOD Water, Dairy Drinks (White Milk, Flavoured Milk, Soymilk and Cultured Dairy Drinks including Drinking Yogurt and Fermented Milk combined), Hot Coffee, Hot Tea
Beer: Beer, Sorghum Beer and Cider
Spirits (standard): Spirits (excludes Fortified Wine and Flavoured Alcoholic Beverages (FABs))
Spirits (extended): Flavoured Alcoholic Beverages (FABs), Fortified Wine, Rice Wine and Sake
Wines: Wine (Still and Sparkling combined)
ASIA: China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam
LATIN AMERICA: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela
EAST EUROPE: Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine
NORTH AMERICA: United States of America
WEST EUROPE: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, (Republic of) Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom
Categories covered where applicable:
Iced/Rtd Tea Drinks
Iced/Rtd Coffee Drinks
Global Beverage Forecasts - Methodology