By: Olly Wehring
The just-drinks leader, written by the just-drinks leader.
For years, they said it couldn't be done. In wine, the theory goes, if you're playing a volume game then you can't all of a sudden make the switch to a value-focussed strategy. And, for a long time, they were right: Talk in recent years of getting consumers to trade up their wine choices has fallen on deaf ears. Within the space of just two years, however, Treasury Wine Estates has proved the theory wrong.
In our coverage of the legal ruling in favour of Irish whiskey brand The Wild Geese in Australia yesterday, I sensed a conspiracy theory of pretty impressive proportions. Could the dominant player in the Irish whiskey sector really have been looking to ride roughshod over one of its much smaller competitors?
In a note to clients last week, analysts at CLSA spoke to Dr Robert Lustig, an expert on endocrinology and obesity and professor at UC San Francisco. On the call, Dr Lustig discussed "the case against sugar", the title of CLSA's note.
For a company dead set on becoming the biggest in its field – and reportedly beyond – Anheuser-Busch InBev's decision to sell off SABMiller's stake in China's CR Snow to JV partner China Resources Beer looks more like a step backwards - and a very cheap one at that.
A relatively small transaction in the beer industry today has left me confused. Why would Anheuser-Busch InBev snap up a London-based craft brewer, when it has a staggeringly-similar entity waiting in the wings, once it completes its purchase of SABMiller? That AB InBev has lined up the sale of this SAB-owned brewer confuses me yet further.
When you buy yourself a new toy, the first thing you want to do is to take it home and play with it. You don't want someone taking it off you, perusing it to see if it will give you too much fun or if it will upset your friends, who may be having not as much fun as you are.
The timing could have been better, but yesterday's divestment of much of Diageo's wine operations has been mooted for a while. What is ironic, though, is that the buyer was itself offered to Diageo as an acquisition opportunity less than seven years ago.
If I were a betting man – and, I am told on occasions like these that I'm not allowed to be, 'cos it's illegal – I'd stick the house on Anheuser-Busch InBev. The brewer has today got SABMiller, if not in a corner, then certainly on the ropes.
We finally have some numbers to play with in Anheuser-Busch InBev's tussle with SABMiller. Add in a deadline that is only days away, and we've got ourselves our own drinks industry cliffhanger going on.
It's all too much to happen on one day for this to be a coincidence, surely? Is SABMiller showing a bit of leg to Anheuser-Busch InBev while simultaneously whispering “higher, higher” in its suitor's ear? That's what two developments today suggest.
Much as Brown-Forman would not be drawn on reports last week that its Southern Comfort whiskey liqueur has been put up for sale, the brand's performances of late suggest that the end is, if not already upon it, then just around the corner.
Today's confirmation that Anheuser-Busch InBev is exploring a bid for SABMiller will have come as a surprise to precisely nobody in the global beer industry. And, while it is by no means a done-deal, there's a certain sense of inevitability about it that many have felt for quite a while now.
Diageo's exit from its beer joint-venture in South Africa and Namibia comes at the same time as observers are considering what else the company defines as non-core to its business. The move suggests to many – and, initially, to me also – that beer is next on the group's non-core list.
It would be very easy to get carried away by the latest stirrings from Diageo over in the US. Indeed, when the Securities & Exchange Commission comes knocking, it would take a particularly ignorant person to not get carried away. But, is this as big a deal as it at first seems?
Yesterday's appointment news from Diageo has echoes of a similar HR switch at SABMiller two years ago - a question of perceived suitability.
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