just-drinks, in association with The IWSR, presents this six-part review of the global rum category. In part three, we look at what the future trends will be for the sector.
Rum's decline is poised to continue over the next few years, with the category likely to shed nearly 3.7m cases between 2016 and 2021. This will include losses in all of the top three markets: India, the US and the Philippines.
Only two out of rum's top 10 markets – Cuba and the Dominican Republic – are likely to grow over the next few years, with Germany predicted flat, and small declines likely in France, Spain and the UK.
However, the heaviest losses will be concentrated in high-volume, low-value destinations, and a slew of smaller markets – from Peru to Australia and Jamaica – have more buoyant growth prospects. More positive trends are also expected in Brazil and Venezuela.
Top 20 fastest growing rum markets, 2014-2019 ('000s nine-litre cases, '14-'19 volume growth)
| Rank | Market | vol 2014 | vol 2015 | vol 2016 | vol 2017 | vol 2018 | vol 2019 | vol change ‘14-’19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 23,025.00 | 23,030.00 | 23,135.00 | 23,380.00 | 23,530.00 | 23,785.00 | 760 |
| 2 | Dominican Republic | 3,863.00 | 3,969.00 | 4,080.00 | 4,196.00 | 4,311.00 | 4,431.00 | 568 |
| 3 | Venezuela | 2,492.25 | 2,625.75 | 2,715.50 | 2,806.50 | 2,885.50 | 2,965.00 | 472.75 |
| 4 | Burma | 3,401.50 | 3,566.75 | 3,612.00 | 3,657.25 | 3,702.50 | 3,747.75 | 346.25 |
| 5 | Russia | 957.5 | 1,017.50 | 1,090.25 | 1,159.00 | 1,219.75 | 1,280.50 | 323 |
| 6 | France | 3,350.00 | 3,416.00 | 3,492.00 | 3,548.00 | 3,599.25 | 3,640.25 | 290.25 |
| 7 | Czech Republic | 1,767.75 | 1,861.75 | 1,926.25 | 1,963.75 | 2,000.50 | 2,036.25 | 268.5 |
| 8 | Travel retail | 1,674.40 | 1,733.75 | 1,787.07 | 1,837.40 | 1,887.83 | 1,935.75 | 261.35 |
| 9 | Peru | 1,006.50 | 1,054.00 | 1,102.25 | 1,151.75 | 1,195.25 | 1,238.25 | 231.75 |
| 10 | Germany | 4,708.50 | 4,804.25 | 4,877.50 | 4,906.25 | 4,934.00 | 4,937.75 | 229.25 |
| 11 | Jamaica | 894 | 944.5 | 980 | 1,017.75 | 1,055.00 | 1,092.75 | 198.75 |
| 12 | Italy | 913.5 | 895.75 | 927.5 | 971 | 1,020.25 | 1,079.25 | 165.75 |
| 13 | Greece | 222 | 237.75 | 260.5 | 297.25 | 338 | 375.75 | 153.75 |
| 14 | Honduras | 564 | 597.75 | 618 | 637.75 | 663 | 691 | 127 |
| 15 | Ukraine | 132.5 | 153.5 | 178 | 203.75 | 228.75 | 254.25 | 121.75 |
| 16 | Spain | 3,540.50 | 3,461.00 | 3,432.00 | 3,494.50 | 3,568.00 | 3,631.75 | 91.25 |
| 17 | Turkey | 81.75 | 95.25 | 110 | 125.75 | 146.5 | 170.5 | 88.75 |
| 18 | Ecuador | 305 | 318.5 | 331.5 | 349 | 371.1 | 391.5 | 86.5 |
| 19 | Australia | 1,006.25 | 1,023.25 | 1,036.50 | 1,057.00 | 1,074.00 | 1,085.50 | 79.25 |
| 20 | Haiti | 444 | 471.75 | 482.75 | 492.5 | 502.25 | 508.75 | 64.75 |
| Others | 90,478.95 | 86,528.55 | 82,442.40 | 78,904.10 | 75,965.60 | 73,458.00 | -17,020.95 | |
| Total | 144,828.85 | 141,806.30 | 138,616.97 | 136,156.25 | 134,198.03 | 132,736.50 | -12,092.35 |
Source: The IWSR
To continue to part IV of the report, click here.
For the just-drinks Rum Essentials content page, click here
All data has been sourced from just-drinks' joint report with The IWSR, Global Rum Insights.
Sectors: Spirits
