Carlsberg Performance Trends 2017-2021 – results data

In early-February, Carlsberg reported a 10% year-on-year increase in sales for 2021. Just Drinks picks through the brewer's performance over the last five years for the trends set to affect the company, specifically, and the global beer category, more broadly. If companies can be said to have human characteristics, then Carlsberg is a quiet achiever: a business that eschews showiness and glitz in favour of just getting on with the job. Under CEO Cees ‘t Hart, the Denmark-headquartered brewer is not one for dramatic pronouncements or seismic shifts in strategic direction. “In many respects, Carlsberg is the unsung hero of the brewing world,” noted Bernstein analyst Trevor Stirling in a note following the company’s H1 2021 results announcement. “Other brewers may have more exposure to high-growth markets, but Carlsberg keeps chugging along, modestly exceeding expectations (and sometimes more).” Such an assessment from as seasoned an observer as Stirling carries weight, while also reflecting the strategic calm that is a hallmark of ‘t Hart’s tenure. Since 2015, he has overseen the imposition of a disciplined attitude to cost - embedded by the ‘Funding the Journey’ efficiency programme that officially closed in 2018, but still exerts its influence on the group's culture - and judicious investment prioritising local, craft, speciality and no- & low-alcohol under the 'SAIL ’22' initiative (recently updated to 'SAIL ’27'). Marquee brands Carlsberg and Tuborg provide stability at the core, while craft and speciality, plus alcohol-free, provide the dynamism, albeit off a smaller base. But there’s caution here too - Carlsberg never went crazy with craft acquisitions, a strategy that has proven to be prudent as the segment hit challenges in the US and around the COVID-19 pandemic. Carlsberg’s regional structure and performance has a similar feel, with Western Europe providing the stable core to its operations, while Asia especially is the key growth area. The company’s successful premiumisation strategy in China is the highlight here, but the brewer also has a solid presence in a number of other regional markets. If there are misgivings, they revolve around Eastern Europe and the Americas. The latter barely registers for Carlsberg but, given the underperformance of the US beer market in recent years, that may be no bad thing. Nonetheless, North America remains a long-term strategic question mark for the business. Carlsberg has been a market leader in Russia since it took control of Baltic Beverages Holding a decade ago, but the market has proven both volatile and challenging almost ever since, thanks to declines in consumption and government intervention through taxation and regulatory changes. At the time of writing, with Russian troops launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and Western governments announcing hugely punitive sanctions against Vladimir Putin, there’s little sign that trading in Russia is likely to get any easier in the immediate future. Notwithstanding these challenges, Carlsberg under ‘t Hart has a longstanding reputation for stability and strategic dexterity, setting sensible targets that can be met (or exceeded), such as SAIL ‘27’s projected sales growth of 3.5% (CAGR) over the next five years. As the company celebrates its 175th birthday in 2022, it has bounced back from the COVID-centred slump of 2020 (when sales declined 8.4%) with sales growth in 2021 of 10% that outstripped pre-pandemic 2019. As Stirling might say, it’s chugging along rather nicely. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r