Chris Mercer

Wine duty forecast: Is this a joke?

By: Chris Mercer - 30 November 2011 18:09

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The UK Government thinks that, by 2017, its duty tax receipts on wine will have risen by 58% in value. 

That's according to forecasts published the the Government's Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) yesterday (29 November). Even allowing for a continuation of the duty tax escalator on drinks, at 2% above inflation, until at least 2015, this is a bold forecast. 

The OBR only makes predictions based on current policy, so it is not basing its prediction on tax rises on wine above the escalator level. 

Clearly, then, it is at least partly based on rises in wine consumption by volume over the period. Has the Government seen a UK wine market report this side of the Lehman Brothers meltdown? Growth has been hard to come by.

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