US: Economy slumps in Q4, spirits sales slowing

The US economy declined by 6% in the fourth quarter of 2008, more steeply than predicted, as fresh industry figures this week indicate that spirits sales have continued to weaken. 

Described by one analyst this afternoon as "absolutely horrible", the official gross domestic product (GDP) figure released today (27 February) suggests that the US is falling into a deeper recession than was originally predicted.

The drop is the worst quarterly fall in US GDP for 25 years.

Several economists had expected a GDP decline of around 5% for the final quarter of 2008, while the government's preliminary estimate, released a few weeks ago, was for a decline of just over 3%.

At the same time, industry figures this week indicate that spirits sales in the US are continuing to slow in the economic downturn.

Spirits shipments in the 19 US Control States rose by 1.1% in January, according to the National Alcohol Beverage Control Association (NABCA).

The Distilled Spirits Council said last month that US spirits sales increased by 1.6% in volume terms for 2008, although it reported continued growth in both premium and 'value' categories.

Analyst group Bernstein estimated in a note this week that spirits volume growth for the US is running at 1% below the NABCA shipment figures, because Control States are more geared towards off-trade sales, which have been less affected than on-trade sales.

If correct, that would make total US spirits shipments by volume flat for January.

Bernstein also estimated that Diageo and Pernod Ricard have been losing spirits market share in Control States.

Fortune Brands CEO and chairman Bruce Carbonari said last month that a 1% volume rise for the group's Beam Global Spirits & Wine business in 2009 would be at the "high end" of the firm's expectations.