Analysis - US spirits wholesalers' optimism at three-year low - survey
The majority of spirits wholesalers are downbeat about the future in the US
Optimism among US spirits wholesalers has fallen to its lowest level in over three years, with promotional activity increasing, according to a survey.
The quarterly study, published by analysts UBS today (30 July), found that 44% of wholesalers in the country are more optimistic about the future than three months ago. However, this figure was 50% in March and is the lowest level since March 2010, UBS said.
However, nearly two-thirds (63%) still expect year-on-year volume growth in the next quarter, the study found.
Around four in ten wholesalers are seeing more promotional activity compared to the prior year, UBS said.
In its report, UBS added: “Wholesalers could be more cautious on the market outlook than spirits companies themselves as wholesalers’ confidence outlook may be more focused on volume than value growth, and volume growth has moderated due to higher industry focus on pricing.”
In 2012, the US spirits market grew sales by 4.5%, while volumes were up by 3%, UBS noted, pointing to DISCUS estimates. Price mix was up by 1.5%.
The analysts added: “In 2013 and the mid-term, we continue to believe that 2% market volume growth is achievable.”
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