United Kingdom Food and Drink Report Q4 2012
Report description
While the UK labour market has proven remarkably resilient during and after the 2008-2009 recession, we expected consumer recovery in the UK to remain relatively weak in 2012. Unlike previous recessions in which a strong rebound in consumer spending restored the economy to its previous growth trajectory, the household sector is not up to the task this time around. Moreover, rising employment alongside a stagnant economy is synonymous with falling productivity, which would in turn lower the UK's longer term growth potential and threatening further development of grocery sales. Headline Industry Data (local currency)
?? 2012 per capita food consumption growth = +1.4%; forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2016 = +2.2%. ?? 2012 alcoholic drinks value sales growth = +1.2%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +1.8%. ?? 2012 soft drinks value sales growth = +3.7%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +3.9%. ?? 2012 mass grocery retail sales growth = +1.8%; forecast CAGR to 2016 = +2.2%.
Key Company Trends Heineken Strengthens Its Cider Portfolio: In June 2012, Heineken boosted its cider portfolio by acquiring Belgian producer Stassen. The firm, already the biggest cider-producer in the UK, will be looking to capitalise on growth there as well as in other European markets and North America. Morrisons Linked with Costcutter Acquisition: The July 2012 news that UK retailer Morrisons has selected the owner of convenience store operator Costcutter to manage operations at five of its distribution centres is likely to fuel speculation that a more sizeable partnership between the two businesses could be in the offing. Reports, which came after Morrisons launched its convenience store concept, M-local, have also suggested that the two held preliminary acquisition talks. Costa Coffee to Be Sold In Petrol Forecourts: In August 2012, UK-based coffee chain Costa secured a deal with UK-based forecourt operator Motor Fuel Group (MFG) under which Costa will supply its express self-serve coffee machines to MFG's 48-station network. MFG confirmed that, as part of its shop refit strategy, some 27 of its stations will start offering Costa by end-2012. Key Risks To Outlook
Domestic and External Risks: On the domestic front, the UK's coalition government has recently suffered a number of embarrassing post-budget U-turns and could be losing the debate on austerity versus growth. This has propelled the opposition Labour party back into the lead in the polls and has raised the hurdle for
Table of contents
Chapter 1 - BMI Industry View
Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis
United Kingdom Food Industry SWOT
United Kingdom Drink Industry SWOT
United Kingdom Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Chapter 3 - Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
UK And Germany Top BMI’s Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Subcategories Q (scores out of )
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q
United Kingdom Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
Macroeconomic Outlook
Economic Activity I
Table: United Kingdom – Economic Activity
Economic Activity II
Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Canned/Prepared Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Snack Food
Table: Snack Foods – Production Consumption & Trade – Historical Data & Forecast
Pasta
Table: Pasta – Production Consumption & Trade – Historical Data & Forecast
Prepared Fish
Table: Fish – Production Consumption & Trade – Historical Data & Forecast
Other Processed Foods
Table: Meat – Production Consumption & Trade – Historical Data & Forecast
Table: Frozen Fruit And Vegetables – Production Consumption & Trade – Historical Data & Forecast
Table: Oils And Fats – Production Consumption & Trade – Historical Data & Forecast
Dairy
Table: Dairy – Production Consumption & Trade – Historical Data & Forecast
Drink
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Hot Drink – Production Consumption & Trade – Historical Data & Forecast
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
United Kingdom Food & Drink Q
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table E: Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type (%)
Trade
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance – Historical Data & Forecasts
Chapter 5 - Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Bright Food Continues International Push With Weetabix Stake
United Biscuits Plans Split To Entice Bidders
Private Equity Continues To Be Attracted To Unfashionable Food Sectors
Müller Purchase Of Robert Wiseman Will Have Scale Market Access In Mind
Tate & Lyle Results Highlight Benefits Of Speciality Ingredients Focus
Greencore Secures Uniq Acquisition But Needs To Do More
Market Overview
Food
Prepared Food
Confectionery
Private Label
Livestock
Organic Food
Chapter 6 - Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Heineken Strengthens Its Cider Offering with Acquisition of Stassen
Diageo Third Quarter Growth Driven By EMs
Diageo Targeting HighEnd Offering with Baiju Brand
Alcohol Pricing Legislation Remains in Spotlight
AG Barr Posts Steady Results Drop In PE Ratio Means Even More Attractive Acquisition Target
Heineken Faces Challenges Of Leaseholder Pub Model
Stevia’s EU Approval Likely To Spur Product Development
Code Of Practice For Beleaguered Leased Pub Sector
Market Overview
Soft Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
Beer
Spirits
Alcohol OnTrade
Chapter 7 - Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Morrisons Linked with Costcutter Acquisition
Sainsbury's Outperforms But No Room For Complacency
Tesco Facing Challenge To Regain Market Confidence Following £bn Investment Plan
Iceland Fails To Attract Major Retailers
Market Overview
Online Retailing
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market Sales Value By Format (US$bn)
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market Sales Value By Format (GBPbn)
Table: Annual Average Sales Per Outlet By Format ()
United Kingdom Food & Drink Q
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page
Chapter 8 - Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Key Players in the UK's Food Sector
Key Players in the UK's Drink Sector
Key Players in the UK's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Chapter 9 - Company Monitor
Food
Associated British Foods
Unilever
Dairy Crest Group
Cadbury (Kraft)
Premier Foods
Drink
Diageo
Mass Grocery Retail
Tesco
J Sainsbury
Asda
Chapter 10 - BMI Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
Chapter 11 - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter 12 - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
Chapter 13 - Demographic Outlook
Table: The United Kingdom's Population By Age Group (')
Table: The United Kingdom's Population By Age Group (% of total)
Table: The United Kingdom's Key Population Ratios
Table: The United Kingdom's Rural And Urban Population
The just-drinks office is currently: Closed
Office opening hours
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Fridays 9:00am-4:30pm
The office is closed during weekends.
Current time at just-drinks headquarters: 9:40am (Saturday, 25 May 2013)
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