Ukraine Food and Drink Report Q2 2014

Ukraine Food and Drink Report Q2 2014

Published: March 2014
Publisher: BMI Research
Product ref: 199405
Pages: 147
Format: PDF
Delivery: Immediate download

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BMI View: While significant unrest carries on in Kiev, as yet it is difficult to attribute the effects such movements will have on economic growth, consumer expenditure and activity within the food and drink sector. At the time of writing, former President Yanukovych has been forced from government. A government in which Yanukovych has any form of power is likely to be rejected by the population, and we outline four of the frontrunners for the presidency as Tymoshenko, Yatsenyuk, Klitschko and Tyahnybok. In the short term, we believe that economic and private consumption growth will be hit by the events in Kiev, on top of the regional underperformance we forecast prior to recent events. Our substantially belowconsensus expectation for economic activity to contract by 1.4% in 2013 looks increasingly likely to play out, with real GDP shrinking by an average of 1.3% y-o-y across the first three quarters of the year, against consensus expectations of 0.1%.

Headline Industry Data (local currency) ¦ 2014 per capita food consumption = +7.0%; five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast to 2017 = +7.9% • 2014 alcoholic drinks value sales (local currency) growth: +6.9%; CAGR to 2018: +7.5%. • 2014 soft drinks value sales (local currency) growth: +7.2%; CAGR to 2018: +7.3%. • 2014 mass grocery retail (MGR) sales (local currency) growth: +8.4%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014 to 2018: +8.3%.

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By sector: General drinks

By market: Ukraine (in Europe)

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