UK Retail Review & Sector Forecasts to 2017
The UK retail sector is highly concentrated and competitive. This report reveals how a combination of technology and consumer demand is changing the structure of the market and the way we shop, including online, shopping trends, and location strategies. It reviews the main players per sector and forecasts expenditure to 2017 detailing the drivers and opportunities in a low growth environment.
- Assess market potential and risks in UK retail sectors with unique and authoritative expenditure forecasts that enable you to plan with confidence
- Use the comprehensive analysis to understand the current evolution of UK retail, future opportunities, and the competitive framework
- Identify new shopping behaviours in order to design location and channel strategies, and plan customer targeting aligned to sector growth trend
- Reduce risk of new market entry with independent and authoritative analysis of the UK retail landscape, and its growth prospects and dangers 2012-17
UK retail growth has been slowing significantly each decade as it matures. Verdict estimates the UK consumer will spend £300bn in retail in 2013, up 1.7% on 2012 and average growth to 2017 is forecast at just 2.5%. Food is the main winner growing share to 45% in 2013 vs 38% in 2007, as consumers refocus on essentials.
Technology and consumer demand is driving change. Retail spending online will account for 12% of total retail in 2013 (£35.3bn). And online is taking greater share - by 2017 it will account for 15% of all retail spend.Tablets and smartphones and new delivery options, such as click and collect, have extended the convenience of shopping online.
The clothing & footwear market is one of the faster growing markets, and offers the greatest opportunity for new entrants because of its fragmentation – the leading retailer, M&S only has just over 10% clothing share. We estimate it will grow by 15.9% by 2017, increasing by £7.2bn, as women spend again, but menswear offers big opportunities.
- Where are the growth opportunities in the nine major retail sectors over the next five years and how can you exploit them?
- What are the drivers and inhibitors in UK retail, what is the growth potential and what are the dangers for new entrants?
- How are channel and location strategies changing and what do retailers need to do to ensure they leverage new trends to their advantage?
- Which sectors will have the highest penetration online by 2017, what value will expenditure be and how will it have changed?
Table of contentsOVERVIEW
UK retail will grow by £4.9bn in 2013, the highest increase since 2008
Consumers focus on necessities as inflation squeezes household budgets
Home-related sectors have suffered a £9.7bn decline since 2007
Food taking a greater share of spend; consumer shopping style changing
Competition and choice intensifies in the food sector
Non-food retailers under greater pressure as volumes fall
Technology fits consumer desire for convenience at all times...
...and is also behind a structural shift in the way we shop
Modern lifestyles demand flexible and fragmented shopping
Technology and ageing population shifting demand to local retail
65+s, children and immigrants all provide growth options for retailers
Clothing sector offers greatest opportunities for new entrants...
...but price-driven specialists should avoid it
New distribution model evolving for retailers; fewer stores necessary
Percentage point difference with Total Retail
•Help and tips to use the quarterly forecasts
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