UK Retail Performance Christmas 2012 Trading Review
Report description
Despite fears of a gloomy Christmas trading period, the general consensus has been a positive one. The relatively mild weather in the lead-up resulted in no travel or delivery disruptions as in previous years. Nevertheless weak spending throughout 2012 in many sectors and the difficulty some retailers are experiencing in adapting to online spend has caused varied results.
- Understand developments in your sector with like-for-like and total growth of over 40 retailers analysed and compared with 2011
- Utilise five year growth trends for your sector and compare it with other key sectors to see where growth lies
- Plan for Christmas 2013 with Q4 forecasts for volume, inflation and total growth
- Understand changing consumer trends and how to address new behaviour in 2012 to gain loyalty
While electricals retailers showed the highest total growth of 9.5%, this is mired by the collapse of Comet, Jessops and, earlier in 2012, GAME – none of which released results. This has left Dixons, with its Currys and PC World fascias, as the dominant force, with an opportunity to rapidly increase revenue.
The theme among the strongest performers in the clothing & footwear sector was that they all had a strong e-commerce presence. ASOS, Boux Avenue and Next have modern online operations, whereas Marks & Spencer and Mothercare do not, and this has been reflected in their relative growth rates.
The ongoing battle between the Big Four food & grocery retailers to offer the cheapest price is having a negative effect on their growth and margins. The catalyst for this has been consumers' readiness to trade down to cheaper retailers such as Aldi, which reported growth of 30.1% versus the sector median of 1.4%.
- Who were the winning and losing retailers & sectors in Q4 2012, and why?
- How can retailers address changing consumer behaviour to grow sales in 2013?
- What sectors are going to show growth in 2013?
Table of contents
•Key findings(Untitled sub-section)
UK RETAIL TRADING UPDATES CHRISTMAS 2012
•Reporting retailers show growth
Methodology and median growth
Most sectors enjoy stable growth
•Retailer outlook for Q4 2013
(Untitled sub-section)
Showrooming holds back high street
•Books, music & video
Traditional retailers like HMV and WH Smith fall prey to Amazon and digital downloads
•Clothing & footwear
Internet strength is key for ASOS, Boux Avenue and Next, though Primark also powers on
•Department stores
Investments instore, online and in promotion pay off
•Electricals
Carphone leads l-f-l surge in 2012 and tablets will boost 2013
•Food & grocery
Shoppers move away from the middle ground
•Health & beauty
Retailers shy away from publishing results but we expect the sector to show resilience in 2013
•Home
Dreams springs surprise as Homebase falters
•Miscellaneous retailers
Christmas cheer for Majestic and Thorntons
RETAILER PERFORMANCES
•Like-for-like performance December and Q4
Comet collapse leaves field open for likes of Carphone Warehouse, Dixons, Dyas and John Lewis
•Total sales performance December and Q4
Aldi, Primark, Fortnums and Ted Baker show polarisation to value and luxury ends
APPENDIX
•Abbreviations/Definitions
•Further reading
•Ask the analyst
•Disclaimer
TABLES
•Table: Books, music & video retailers performance Christmas 2011 and 2012
•Table: Clothing & footwear retailers performance Christmas 2011 and 2012
•Table: Department stores performance Christmas 2011 and 2012
•Table: Electricals retailers performance Christmas 2011 and 2012
•Table: Food & grocery retailers performance Christmas 2011 and 2012
•Table: Health & beauty retailers performance Christmas 2011 and 2012
•Table: Home retailers performance Christmas 2011 and 2012
•Table: Miscellaneous retailers performance Christmas 2011 and 2012
FIGURES
•Figure: Median growth reported for Q4 and Christmas period 2011 and 2012
•Figure: Median total sales growth for Q4, H2 and Christmas period 2012
•Figure: Median l-f-l sales growth by sector Christmas 2012
•Figure: Median l-f-l sales growth by sector Christmas 2011 and 2012
•Figure: Year-on-year total UK retail growth Q4 2003–13e
•Figure: Non-food inflation, volume and total growth for Q4 2012 and 2013
•Figure: Food & grocery inflation, volume and total growth for Q4 2012 and 2013
•Figure: Retailer strategies for combatting Christmas showrooming in 2013
•Figure: Books, music & video median performance Christmas 2007–12
•Figure: Clothing & footwear retailers median performance Christmas 2007–12
•Figure: Department stores median performance Christmas 2007–12
•Figure: Electricals retailers median performance Christmas 2007–12
•Figure: Food & grocery retailers median performance Christmas 2007–12
•Figure: Health & beauty retailers median performance Christmas 2007–12
•Figure: Home retailers median performance Christmas 2007–12
•Figure: Miscellaneous retailers median performance Christmas 2007–12
•Figure: Retailers year-on-year growth in l-f-l sales over Christmas 2012
•Figure: Retailers year-on-year growth in l-f-l sales Q4 2012
•Figure: Retailers year-on-year growth in total sales over Christmas 2012
•Figure: Retailers year-on-year growth in total sales Q4 2012
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