UK Annual Forecasts 2012–17: Online

Overall online retail growth peaked back in 2008. The growth rates of over 30% achieved back then are unlikely ever to return as the market has matured; most retailers now have an online transactional presence; and the vast majority of consumers have access to broadband internet. Still, some sectors will gain by double-digit percentage rates for the next few years.

• Understand which sectors of online retail will perform the best and offer the most opportunities, using our expenditure forecasts to 2017
• Understand the full potential of mobile devices with our forecasts of the m-commerce market
• Discover our comprehensive analysis of the key issues set to impact the online sector over the next five years
• Identify the market growth drivers and inhibitors and implement our strategies to improve sales growth potential

Online growth is still rapid pace and some sectors – Clothing & Footwear, Food & Grocery and Furniture & Floorcoverings – will gain by double-digit percentage rates for the next few years.

In 2017 the online retail market will be worth almost £50bn, and one pound in every seven spent on retail will be through the online channel. Electricals and Food & Grocery will be the largest online sectors, closely followed by Clothing & Footwear.

Over the next five years the online sector can be split into two sub sectors – home-related sales, which will accelerate or maintain steady growth rates, and non-home-related sales where growth rates will decelerate over the forecast period.

• What is the e-retail market size and how will it develop over the next five years? What proportion of retail is done online?
• How much are retailers benefiting from the mobile revolution? What proportion of online sales are being done on mobile devices?
• Which retail sectors are growing fastest through the online and mobile channels?

Table of contents

OVERVIEW
Summary
Methodology

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Introduction
Scope
Methodology
Food growth trends
Non-food trends
Sense checking
Principle Sources

MARKET SUMMARY
Volume growth suffers as consumers lack confidence in spending
Consumers are becoming more confident about purchasing on the internet;
Retailers are investing more in ensuring that their online sites are more intuitive and convenient to use, with wider ranges available;
Sales of smartphones capable of accessing the internet now make up the majority of mobile phone purchases and tablet sales are increasing rapidly;
Inflation in the cost of living and slow wage growth continue to erode disposable income;
Customers are increasingly using stores to view products (treating stores as showrooms) but then purchasing online for cheaper prices;
Broadband penetration is such that nearly all of the population who want it can access it;
Some consumers are put off by the lack of advice and services available from online sellers.

APPENDIX
Help and tips to use the annual forecasts
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Disclaimer

TABLES
Table: Principle sources of data and information

FIGURES
Figure: Verdict forecasting methodology

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By market: United Kingdom (in Europe)