UK Annual Forecasts 2012–17: Food & Grocery

Supply-chain driven inflation will continue to push up prices for the next five years and as a result volumes will remain restricted. Top-up shopping will drive footfall to smaller stores. Out-of-town stores will suffer further from the switch to online and high petrol prices. In 2012 expansion takes a back seat to refurbishments as retailers seek to maximise sales densities in existing space.

• Use our market share & channels of distribution to find out which retailers and channels are set to grow or decline significantly in the next 5 years
• Discover our comprehensive analysis of the key issues set to impact the food & grocery market over the next five years
• Identify the market growth drivers and inhibitors and implement our strategies to improve sales growth potential

Inflation in 2013 will remain high at 2.9% resulting from poor harvests and pressure from oil prices. Grains from the US and Russia are particularly impacted as is fruit & veg in the UK. Ongoing oil price inflation keeps pressure on costs up. Volumes remain restricted with shoppers putting on average one less item in their baskets.

Convenience and online are the focus for grocers as out-of-town footfall declines. There will be a shift from expansion to refurbishment as investment in store environments gains precedence over continued store openings. Focus on fresh food and counters brings retailers back from Big Box to traditional grocers.

Increased footfall in neighbourhoods provides an opportunity for specialists but, the expansion and improvement of grocers and symbol groups brings a significant threat. Consolidation will slow but continue. Added-value, service and expertise are important for survival.

• What is the food & grocery market size and how will it develop over the next five years?
• Which channels have performed the best over the last five years, and which channels have seen their share of the market decline?
• What are the key issues that will impede or maximise future growth opportunities?
• What strategies can I put in place to help drive sales and protect sales densities and profitability from falling?

Table of contents

OVERVIEW
Summary
Methodology

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Introduction
Scope
Methodology
Principle Sources

MARKET SUMMARY
Inflation continues to prop up growth as volumes stagnate
Supply-chain driven inflation with rising commodity costs including oil, will push up retail prices;
Volumes will remain restricted as basket sizes continue to drop;
Top-up shopping will drive footfall to neighbourhoods and smaller stores;
Symbol groups will grow further as independents join seeking refuge from expanding grocers;
Discounters, value frozen food retailers and pound stores provide a new alternative food store for many shoppers and are a growing threat to the Big Four;
Out-of-town and larger stores suffer from the switch in both food and non-food to online and high petrol prices proving a deterrent to travelling out-of-town to shop;
Expansion takes a back seat to refurbishments as retailers seek to maximise sales densities in existing space;
Click & collect on food will increase the appeal of online shopping by cutting out delivery charges and waiting time.

APPENDIX
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TABLES
Table: Principle sources of data and information

FIGURES
Figure: Verdict forecasting methodology

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By market: United Kingdom (in Europe)