Uganda Food and Drink Report Q4 2012

Uganda’s organised food and drink industry is accelerating off a very low base, with per capita food consumption around US$250, per capita beer consumption below 10 litres and organised grocery retail’s proportional contribution to overall sales below 5%. As local consumers climb up the income ranks, these consumption levels will soar considerably over the coming years, underpinning our expectations that the Ugandan market will comfortably outperform the broader East African Community (EAC) region. Backing up BMI’s view on Uganda’s relative competitiveness, sector investments have been more forthcoming in its food and drink sector, with a number of companies opting to invest in Uganda before Tanzania, for example. Uganda’s beer industry has been the EAC’s most competitive for some time, and Kenyan retailers have been launching stores, with others expected to follow suit. The retailers are largely pursuing middle-to-high-income traffic, as the industry generally lacks the scale to pursue low-income traffic at this stage.

In stark contrast to the demographic ‘time bomb’ being faced by most developed countries, Uganda’s population is one of the most youthful and fastest growing in the world. According to statistics published by the US Census Bureau, Uganda’s total fertility rate is 6.5 births per woman, second only to Niger. Given that we expect the birth rate to be sustained at this high level, the country’s population pyramid is likely to be as widely based in three or four decades from now as it is at present.

Headline Industry Data ?? Per capita food consumption in local currency terms is forecast to increase by 20.7% in 2012. To 2016, we forecast compound annual growth of 14.1%. ?? Mass grocery retail sales in local currency terms are forecast to increase by 27.8% in 2012. To 2016, we forecast compound annual growth of 19.4%.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 - BMI Industry View

Chapter 2 - Business Environment

BMI’s Core Global Industry Views

Table: Core Views

Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Ratings

Table: Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q (scores out of )

Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Economic Activity, -

Chapter 3 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Food, Drink, Mass Grocery Retail

Food

Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Table: Sugar Confectionery, -

Table: Dairy, -

Drink

Beer

Table: Beer Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Soft Drinks

Table: Carbonated Soft Drinks, -

Hot Drinks

Table: Tea, -

Mass Grocery Retail

Table: Mass Grocery Retail, -

Chapter 4 - Market Overview

An Overview Of The East African Food And Drink Industry

Chapter 5 - Key Regional Industry Trends And Developments

SABMiller’s Sechaba Breweries: SSA’s Most Efficient Beer Company?

Chapter 6 - Demographic Outlook

Table: Uganda’s Population By Age Group, - (‘)

Table: Uganda’s Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Uganda’s Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Uganda’s Rural And Urban Population, -

Chapter 7 - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology

Table: Rewards

Table: Risks

Weighting

Table: Weighting

Chapter 8 - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary

Food & Drink

Mass Grocery Retail

Chapter 9 - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing

Uganda Food & Drink Report Q

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How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sourcing

Related research categories

By sector: General drinks

By market: Uganda (in Africa)