Uganda Food and Drink Report Q2 2014

Uganda Food and Drink Report Q2 2014

Published: March 2014
Publisher: BMI Research
Product ref: 199404
Pages: 58
Format: PDF
Delivery: Immediate download

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The Ugandan economy rebounded strongly in 2013, and we expect this positive momentum to continue over the coming quarters. Even so, the deleterious effects of a recent drought on inflation and household income growth have dampened our outlook. We expect inflation in Uganda to head higher over the coming months owing to the effects of drought-induced food price pressure. While this pressure is likely to ease through H114, we believe that the Bank of Uganda will maintain a hawkish stance.

We forecast that real GDP growth will come in at 6.6% in 2014, following 5.7% growth in 2013. We also hold the view that real private final consumption will grow strongly, at 7.4% in 2014. We believe that private consumption will expand around this rate through our forecast period. In 2013, we estimate that GDP per capita stood at UGX1.7m (US$675), low by any standards. However, we believe that this will rise by 69% through to 2018, reaching US$1,078.

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