Uganda Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
Report description
Our Africa team believes that private consumption in Uganda will continue to rebound following adverse conditions in late 2011 and early 2012, which saw inflation soar and purchasing power plummet. Due to the improvement in food supplies (owing to much more favourable weather conditions), as well as the aggressive action by the Bank of Uganda to rein in price growth, inflation has continued to fall from its highs of more than 30% year-on-year (y-o-y) in October 2011. While this is in line with BMI expectations, the October 2012 figure came in even lower than we had anticipated, at only 4.5% y-o-y, compared with 5.5% in the previous month. While we expect a modest increase in inflation in the final two months of 2012, our year-end forecast of 5.6% (an adjustment from our previous estimate of 6.5%) is still well below Uganda's historical average, and especially low relative to recent highs. The lower inflation will allow households to stretch their incomes further, and expand the amount of goods and services they consume in real terms.
The large young population will keep private consumption supported over the longer term, as more workers enter the labour force, incomes rise along with a growing economy, and unemployment is reduced. While these improvements are subject to prudent policy and the successful diversification of the economy, we are optimistic that Uganda is on the right path.
Headline Industry Data
?? Per capita food consumption in local currency terms is forecast to increase by 12.0% in 2013. To 2017, we forecast compound annual growth of 12.6%.
?? Mass grocery retail sales in local currency terms are forecast to increase by 17.2% in 2013. To 2017, we forecast compound annual growth of 17.3%.
Table of contents
Chapter - BMI Industry View
Chapter - Business Environment
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Food
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Sugar Confectionery Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Drink
Beer
Table: Beer Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Soft Drinks
Table: Carbonated Soft Drinks Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Hot Drinks
Table: Tea Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Chapter - Market Overview
An Overview Of The East African Food And Drink Industry
Chapter - Key Regional Industry Trends And Developments
Coffee Shops Taking Off In Tea-Drinking Nation
Massmart In Talks To Enter Kenya
Africa To Guzzle A Lot More Beer; Look Out For Nigeria
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: Uganda's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Uganda's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Uganda's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
The just-drinks office is currently: Closed
Office opening hours
Mon-Thursdays 9:00am-5:30pm
Fridays 9:00am-4:30pm
The office is closed during weekends.
Current time at just-drinks headquarters: 6:46am (Sunday, 26 May 2013)
Need help? Contact the research team
