Turkey Retail Report Q1 2013
Report description
The Turkey Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Turkey's economic outlook of tight monetary policy and the economy's vulnerability to higher oil prices.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Turkish retail market while minimising investment risk, and explores the impact of depressed economic activity in the eurozone, the US and China on the Turkish consumer, and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Turkish retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Turkish per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 34% between 2013 and 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 33%. The country comes fifth (out of 10) in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings.
Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to reach US$10.49bn in 2013, and to grow by 53.5% between 2013 and 2016 to US$16.10bn as growth potential is realised in key digital products groups such as computers (10 %penetration), notebook computers, digital cameras and LCD TV sets.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in government information society initiatives and computers for schools programmes that will help shape and support the market.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
? According to the most recent data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute, real GDP growth in Turkey slowed to 2.9% y-o-y in the second quarter of 2012, down from 3.3% in the first quarter and 9.1% in the second quarter of 2011. The most recent GDP print supports BMI's long-held view that headline growth would continue to slow following the stellar growth chalked up in 2010 and 2011, and we remain confident of our full-year forecast of 3.0% for 2012. We expect domestic economic activity to remain subdued, and this underpins our expectation for only a slight pick-up in real GDP growth in 2013 to 4.7%, still well below the 9.1% and 8.5 %growth readings registered in 2010 and 2011 respectively
? While depressed regional and global economic confidence has played a role in weakening household spending, the major factor underpinning the slowdown has been the central bank's tight monetary stance which was maintained for the lion's share of 2012. Given that the central bank has begun to ease policy, this will help household expenditure to pick up towards the end of 2012, and BMI currently targets FY12 growth of 2.7% (equivalent to a 1.85 percentage point (pp) contribution to headline growth).
? That said, the recovery process for the consumer is set to remain prolonged, with growth of only 4.0% and 4.3% pencilled in for 2013 and 2014 respectively in household expenditure, well below the 7.7% growth recorded in 2011.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Turkey Retail Business Environment SWOT
Turkey Political SWOT
Turkey Economic SWOT
Chapter - Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segments, 2013f
Organised Retail
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Chapter - Regional Retail Outlook
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2009-2016
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn, unless stated)
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016
Regional Retail Trends
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
Turkey's Retail Rating
Limits of Potential Returns
Risks to Realisation of Returns
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Turkey Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sector By Number Of Outlets
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Value By Format (TRYbn)
Table: Value Of Sales Per Outlet 2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format
Industry Developments
Chapter - Consumer Electronics
Turkey Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Table: PC Sales, 2008-2016
AV
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016
Industry Developments
Chapter - Automotives
Turkey Autos Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Automotive Production, 2010-2017
Table: Automotive Sales, 2010-2017
Market Developments
Trade
Table: Automotive Trade, 2010-2017
Industry Developments
Suppliers
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Turkey's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of population)
Table: Turkey's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Turkey's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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