Thailand Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
Report description
Despite short-term economic weakness owing to sluggish export demand and growing problems surrounding the rice mortgage scheme, we remain optimistic about the medium- as well as longer-term development of Thailand's food and drinks market. Thailand has a young and fast-growing population, receptive to new products and tastes, which offers dynamic opportunities in the mass grocery retail market. Overall growth will be supported by expanding economy.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
?? 2013 food consumption value growth = +6.40%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast to 2017 = +6.21
%?? 2013 soft drinks value sales growth = +6.8%; CAGR forecast to 2017 = +7.48
%?? 2013 alcoholic drinks value sales growth = +5.57%; CAGR forecast to 2017 = +5.33
%?? 2013 mass grocery retail sales growth = +5.96%; CAGR forecast to 2017 = +6.41
%Key Industry Trends
Thai Company Wraps Us PepsiCo Deal and Launches First Cola Drink - In November 2012, Thailand beverage company Serm Suk announced the launch of its first cola drink. The company, which recently terminated its long-running agreement with US beverage manufacturer PepsiCo, expects to register sales of THB8bn (US$260mn) from carbonated drinks in 2013. The new product, 'est', will eventually be available in a variety of flavours including lemon and lime. For its part, Pepsi has reaffirmed its commitment to Thailand by announcing investment in two new production plants, bringing its investment in the country since 2000 to over US$2.9bn.
Taxes on Spirits Increase - In September 2012, the Thai government introduced new taxes on spirits, namely a bump in the taxation of white distilled spirits and blended distilled spirits when calculated by volume, and an increase in the taxation of brandy when calculated by sale value. The increases are relatively minor in terms of the additional cost per bottle. However, they signal that the government is currently willing to look to the alcohol sector for tax revenues, with the increases (alongside increased tax on cigarettes) expected to raise THB13bn each year.
Carlsberg Signs a Joint Venture (JV) Agreement with Thai Singha - In October 2012, Danish brewing giant Carlsberg established a JV with Thai brewer Singha. The new venture will promote Carlsberg's premium brands, such as Kronenbourg and Tuborg in Thailand, while Carlsberg will sell Singha's beer outside of Thailand, with a focus on Europe. The move suggests that Carlsberg finally feels at a stage with its European operations that it is ready to look at expanding its Asian business, which has been put on something of a back burner as the firm wrestled to contend with declining sales in Russia.
Risks to Forecasts
Rice Mortgage Scheme Threatens GDP Growth: The Puea Thai Party's rice mortgage scheme - introduced in 2011 - is expected to contribute to a widening fiscal deficit in 2012. Furthermore, we see increasing risks that the present rice policy could have longer-term implications for the agricultural industry by diverting resources away from investment in technology aimed at raising crop yields and overall productivity. In fact, according to a report published by the Thailand Development Research Institute, rice exports have plummeted by an estimated 44% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 5.5mn tonnes at the beginning of 2012 to just 3.0mn tonnes in June 2012, which will clearly impact the country's overall GDP development and thus also consumer confidence levels. The scheme effectively sets a floor on rice prices and guarantees a premium for rice produced by local farmers.
Table of contents
Chapter - BMI Industry View
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Thailand Food Industry SWOT
Thailand Drink Industry SWOT
Thailand Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Chapter - Business Environment
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings, Q113 (score out of 10)
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113
Thailand Food And Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2017
Pasta
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Drink
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2017
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: MGR Sales Value By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2017
Table: Estimated Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format
Trade
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2017
Chapter - Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
BreadTalk Extends Footprint Across Thailand
Pursuing Growth Beyond Thailand
Food Companies Pushing Deeper Into Thailand
Rice Exports Likely To Fall In 2011/12 Despite Better Crop
Market Overview
Agriculture
Dairy
Table: Dairy Production, Consumption and Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2017
Organics
Food Processing
Trade
Chapter - Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Global Brewers Targeting Thailand Through Joint Ventures
Thai Company Wraps Up PepsiCo Deal, Launches First Cola Drink
Investments To Intensify In Soft Drinks Sector
Taxes On Spirits Increase
Table: Alcohol Tax Rates
Non-Carbonates To Outperform
Brewers Building Regional Presence Across Thailand
Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Soft Drinks
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Tesco Continues Expanding In Thailand
Tesco's Impressive Debut Reflects Investor Confidence In Thai Retail
Embarking On An Expansionary Wave
Price-Cutting Not A Practical Strategy For The Hypermarket Duo
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Value By Format (US$bn)
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Value By Format (THBbn)
Table: Estimated Average Sales Per Outlet By Format – 2012
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players In Thailand's Food Sector
Table: Key Players In Thailand's Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In Thailand's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Chapter - Company Monitor
Food
Chokchai
Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF)
Thai President Foods
Thai Union Frozen Products
Drink
Thai Asia Pacific Brewery (Thai APB)
Thai Beverages Plc (ThaiBev)
Singha Corporation (formerly Boon Rawd Brewery)
Mass Grocery Retail
CP All Ltd
Siam FamilyMart
Tesco Lotus
Central Food Retail Company Ltd (CFR)
Big C Supercentre
Chapter - Country Snapshot
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Thailand's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Thailand's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
The just-drinks office is currently: Closed
Office opening hours
Mon-Thursdays 9:00am-5:30pm
Fridays 9:00am-4:30pm
The office is closed during weekends.
Current time at just-drinks headquarters: 8:19pm (Thursday, 23 May 2013)
Need help? Contact the research team
