Sudan and South Sudan Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
Report description
Sudan has some structural advantages in terms of private consumption that are likely to bolster growth in this segment of the economy over the long term. For example, the population is quite young (with more than 50% younger than 20 and 40% younger than 15), and will provide a larger pool of consumers as they grow into adulthood and their peak consumption years. Furthermore, as more people enter the workforce, a greater pool of wage earners has the potential to bolster household income, providing greater ability to buy goods and services.
However, over the medium term these factors will be blunted by significant obstacles. First and foremost is exorbitant inflation, which has decimated consumers' purchasing power. Year-on-year headline price growth has risen for nine consecutive months, reaching 42.1% in August 2012, the most recent month for which data are available. Food inflation, which accounts for a large share of the consumer price index basket, is nearly as high, reaching 41.6% y-o-y. Sudan suffers from chronic food insecurity, and adverse weather conditions domestically, coupled with the high global price of food due to poor conditions in the world's main exporting countries, has seen prices of staples soar.
In South Sudan, consumption is likely to benefit from demographic trends, which are expected to see the number of consumers rise substantially in the coming years. Like its neighbour to the north, South Sudan has a very young population, with 56.1% of its citizens younger than 20, and 45.4% younger than 15. Over the near term, however, the country is still reeling from astronomical inflation, which despite coming down from its highs of 79.5% year-on-year in May, still stood at 42.9% in September, significantly eroding the purchasing power of ordinary households.
?? Per capita food consumption is forecast to increase by 34.8% in 2013. To 2017, we forecast a compound annual growth of 15.9%.
?? Mass grocery retail sales are forecast to increase by 39.6% in 2013. To 2017, we forecast compound annual growth of 19.2%.
Table of contents
Chapter - BMI Industry View
Chapter - Business Environment
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Food
Table: Sudan & South Sudan – Food Consumption, 2010-2017
Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Sudan & South Sudan – Mass Grocery Retail, 2010-2017
Chapter - Market Overview
An Overview Of The East African Food And Drink Industry
Chapter - Key Regional Industry Trends And Developments
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Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Sudan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Sudan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Sudan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
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