South Korea Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
Report description
Despite widespread calls for a bottoming out in South Korea's economy, we believe the worst is yet to come. Indeed, forward-looking macro indicators suggest to us that economic weakness is likely to persist well into 2013. We expect real GDP growth to come in at 3.0% in 2013, which remains below consensus' expectations of 3.4%. The domestic property market is likely to remain weak amid the bleak economic landscape. A supply overhang and the country's perennial household debt situation are also likely to keep downward pressure on prices. All this bodes ill for private consumption.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
? 2013 per capita food consumption = +2.9%; forecast to 2017 = +27.1%.
? 2013 alcoholic drink value sales = +2.8%; forecast to 2017 = +27.6%.
? 2013 soft drink value sales = +4.3%; forecast to 2017 = +31.8%.
? 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +6.2%; forecast to 2017 = +52.6%.
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Nong Shim Hit by Noodle Ban: In autumn 2012 the Korea Food and Drug Administration said that health department tests found that noodles made by Korean food giant Nong Shim did possess safe amounts of the 'benzopyrene' chemical. The Philippines had ordered the recall of six brands of Nong Shim noodles in October but the government is being urged to lift the noodle ban. In a statement, the South Korean Embassy said the ban was 'seriously impacting both Philippine and Korean traders, as well as the image of Koreamade noodles'.
Korean Households Cut Back on Retail Spending: In October 2012 the South Korean Ministry of Knowledge Economy released figures showing that sales at department stores controlled the country's leading three retailers fell by 0.4% from a year earlier. The top three retailers include Hyundai, Lotte Shopping and Shinsegae. The drop compared with a 1.3% decrease predicted by the ministry and a 0.8 %drop in September.
Risks To Outlook
Should we see a sharper-than-expected downturn in the global economy or even an implosion in South Korea's household debt market, we would certainly expect to see a substantial weakening in the country's exports sector, which, in turn may push the economy into a pronounced recession.
Table of contents
Chapter - BMI Industry View
BMI Industry View
Chapter - SWOT
Food
Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter - Industry Forecast
Industry Forecast Food
Food
Table: Food Consumption Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Canned Food Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Confectionery Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Sugar Confectionery Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Processed Meat Historical Indicators and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Preserved Fish Historical Indicators and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Oils and Fats Historical Indicators and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: South Korea Food and Drink Trade Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Industry Forecast Drink
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value Sales Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Soft Drinks Value Sales Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Carbonates Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Bottled Water Historical Indicators and Forecasts 2010-2017
Industry Forecast Mass Grocery Retail
Table: South Korea MGR Indicators, Sales Value by Format, Historical Data and Forecasts 2010-2017
Table: Retail Sales By Format
Chapter - Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Asia Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings, Q113 (score out of 10)
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q113
Chapter - Market Overview
Market Overview Food
Market Overview Drink
Market Overview Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Table: Estimated Number Of MGR Outlets
Table: Table: MGR Sales Value (US$bn)
Table: Table: MGR Sales Value (KRWbn)
Table: Table: Average Sales Per Outlet By Format, 2010
Chapter - Industry Trends And Developments
Industry Trends And Developments Food
Industry Trends And Developments Drink
Industry Trends And Developments Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Competitive Landscape Food and Drink
Table: Key Players In South Korea's Food Sector
Table: Key Players In South Korea's Drink Sector
Competitive Landscape Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Key Players In South Korea's MGR Sector
Chapter - Company Profile
Maiel Dairy Industry
Nong Shim
Hite Brewery
Oriental Brewery
Lotte Shopping
Samsung Tesco HomePlus
Chapter - Global Industry Overview
Global Food & Drink Core Views
Table: Core Views
Chapter - Glossary
Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter - Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Table: Weighting
Chapter - Demographic Forecast
Demographic Forecast
Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: South Korea's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: South Korea's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
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