Slovenia Retail Report Q1 2013
Report description
The Slovenian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags up short-term concerns about the impact of aggressive fiscal austerity on Slovenia's economic outlook, and the increasing likelihood that the country will need external financial assistance to support its ailing banking sector.
We examine how best to maximise returns in the Slovenian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explore the impact of weakening conditions in the eurozone on the Slovenian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by leading players in the Slovenian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market. Slovenian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a modest 11% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 33%. The country comes fourth out of 10 in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), in which it performs better in terms of risk.
Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales predicted to increase from US$6.20bn in 2013 to US$7.21bn by 2016, a rise of 16.2%. The country has experienced the fastest growth in discounting within the CEE region, with hypermarket sales forecast to outperform the rest of the MGR sector between 2013 and 2016, growing by 19.0% to US$2.93bn.
BMI predicts that overall MGR sales will increase steadily through 2016, by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.29% in local currency terms, mostly as a result of new store openings, expansion of product ranges and increased consumer numbers gained through the closure of smaller independent outlets. Over the past quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
?? BMI has revised down Slovenia's medium-term growth forecasts in light of deteriorating economic activity and confidence across the eurozone, and the growing likelihood that Slovenia will require external financial assistance to support its banking sector. Whereas previously we forecast real GDP growth of -0.7% in 2012, followed by a pick-up to 1.6% in 2013 and 2.5% in 2014, we now envisage a more severe economic contraction in 2012, to the tune of -1.0%, followed by a more modest recovery over the next few years, with growth of 1.0% and 1.8 %expected in 2013 and 2014 respectively.
?? BMI has revised its private consumption growth forecasts for 2012, 2013 and 2014 to -0.5%, 0.6% and 1.6% respectively, from -0.7%, 1.6% and 2.5% previously. These forecast revisions are backed up by leading indicator data. The unemployment rate remains severely elevated, at 11.6%, almost double the rate seen back in late 2008, and employment prospects are unlikely to improve any time soon, with corporates focused on deleveraging and eurozone economic activity proving lacklustre.
?? However, the volume of retail trade rose 2.2% month-on-month (m-o-m) in August 2012, according to first-estimate figures released on October 3 by European Union statistics agency Eurostat. This was the third-highest rise among EU member states for which data are available.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Slovenia Retail Business Environment SWOT
Slovenia Political SWOT
Slovenia Economic SWOT
Chapter - Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016
Table: Retail Market Share By Sector, 2013f
Organised Retail
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Chapter - Regional Retail Outlook
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2009-2016
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn, unless stated)
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016
Regional Retail Trends
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
Slovenia's Retail Risk/Reward Rating
Rewards
Risks
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Slovenia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Number Of Outlets, 2000-2011
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value, 2000-2011
Table: Estimated Value Of Sales Per Outlet Format (2011)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format, Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Retail Format Type (% Of total)
Industry Developments
Chapter - OTC Pharmaceuticals
Slovenia Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016
Table: Forecast, 2005-2009
Industry Developments
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Slovenia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Slovenia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Slovenia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Slovenia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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