Singapore Retail Report Q4 2012

The Singapore Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Singapore’s economic outlook of falling house prices. The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Singapore retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a hard landing in China as well as ongoing eurozone woes on the Singapore consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Singapore retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Singapore comes sixth (out of seven) in BMI’s Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms significantly for risk.

Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 25.9% between 2012 and 2016, from US$4.18bn to US$5.26bn as demand grows for higher-end product categories such as smartphones, HD TV sets, Blu-ray DVD players and entertainment notebooks.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in government initiatives that should put the semiconductor and electronics industries on a long-term path to renewed viability.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

?? BMI retains its full-year growth outlook of 2.6% for Singapore. Although the country allayed fears of a sharp slowdown in Q112, posting above-consensus 9.9% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth, year-on-year (y-o-y) growth was considerably more muted at 1.6%. While we acknowledge that Q112's 9.9% q-o-q print indicates that the economy does retain some momentum and will now avoid a technical recession, we point to the 1.6% y-o-y figure to underscore the point that a longer-term slowdown is still in progress.

?? BMI expects private consumption to continue to support the overall economy with a 5.3% expansion in 2012 as real wages get a boost and inflation moderates. However, we believe that the property sector is at a major inflection point where a negative wealth effect will begin to set in, putting a damper on consumer sentiment in a country where 87% of Singaporeans own their homes. Nevertheless, we forecast that private consumption will grow from its current 38.6% proportion of the economy to 48.1% by 2021.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Singapore Retail Business Environment SWOT

Singapore Political SWOT

Singapore Economic SWOT

Chapter 3 - Market Overview

Key Players

Current Trends

Chapter 4 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Consumer Outlook

Retail Growth Outlook

Table: Singapore’s Retail Sales Indicators,

Table: Singapore’s Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, f

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: SingaporeEconomic Activity,

Chapter 5 - Regional Retail Outlook

Asia Pacific Retail Outlook

Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales,(US$bn)

Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales,(%)

Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption,(US$bn)

Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook,

Chapter 6 - Risk/Reward Ratings

Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Asia Pacific Retail Risk/Reward Ratings

Singapore’s Retail Rating

Limits Of Potential Returns

Risks To Realisation Of Returns

Chapter 7 - Mass Grocery Retail

Singapore Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT

Market Overview

Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets

Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (US$bn)

Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (SGDbn)

Table: Estimated Average Sales Per Outlet By Format,

Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts

Industry Forecast

Table: Singapore Mass Grocery Retail Indicators (US$bn)Historical Data & Forecasts By Format,

Industry Developments

Chapter 8 - Consumer Electronics

Singapore Consumer Electronics Market SWOT

Singapore Electronics Industry SWOT

Market Overview

Computers

Table: Computers: Demand,

AV

Table: AV: Demand,

Handsets

Table: Mobile Handsets: Demand,

Government Authority

Industry Forecast

Table: Consumer Electronics Overview,

Industry Developments

Chapter 9 - Automotives

Singapore Automotives SWOT

Competitive Landscape

Table: Singapore – TopNew Vehicle Registrations By Company, M

Industry Forecast

Table: Registered Vehicles – Historical Data & Forecasts,(CBUs)

Industry Developments

Chapter 10 - Demographic Data

Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group,(')

Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group,(% of total)

Table: ngapore's Key Population Ratios,

Table: Singapore's Rural And Urban Population,

Chapter 11 - BMI Methodology

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sources

Related research categories

By sector: Retail (in Off-trade)

By market: Singapore (in Asia)