Singapore Retail Report Q1 2013
The Singapore Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Singapore's economic outlook of inflationary pressure as housing and transportation prices in the city-state continue to soar.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Singapore retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a more severe deterioration among Singapore's main trading partners (the US, the EU and China) on the Singaporean consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Singapore retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Singapore comes sixth (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms significantly for risk.
Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 20.7% between 2013 and 2016, from US$4.36bn to US$5.26bn as demand grows for higher-end product categories such as smartphones, HD TV sets, Blu-ray DVD players and entertainment notebooks.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in government initiatives that should put the semiconductor and electronics industries on a long-term path to renewed viability.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
?? Our ongoing view is that Singapore's economy will have slowed in 2012 to a pace of 2.6% for the entire year (before witnessing a mild recovery to 3.6% in 2013) as the globally connected city-state's relatively healthy domestic economy battles the deleterious effects of languid external demand. Revised estimates for Q212 indicate that Singapore's GDP contracted by 0.7% in quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) annualised, seasonally adjusted (SA) terms (versus initial estimates of 1.1%), following a revised 9.4% expansion in Q112.
?? BMI has revised its private consumption growth outlook down to 4.5% from 5.3% previously in line with H112 numbers, but we maintain a relatively sanguine outlook for the sector, and expect even stronger growth of 6.0% in 2013 as the economy bounces back from its middling 2012 performance.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Singapore Retail Business Environment SWOT
Singapore Political SWOT
Singapore Economic SWOT
Chapter - Market Overview
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Singapore - Economic Activity
Chapter - Regional Retail Outlook
Asia Pacific Retail Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Retail Sales, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (%)
Table: Asia Pacific Food Consumption, 2010-2017 (US$bn)
Table: Asia Pacific Macroeconomic Outlook, 2010-2017
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Singapore Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (US$bn)
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (SGDbn)
Table: Estimated Average Sales Per Outlet By Format, 2011
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Singapore Mass Grocery Retail Indicators (US$bn) - Historical Data & Forecasts By Format, 2009-2016
Chapter - Consumer Electronics
Singapore Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Singapore Electronics Industry SWOT
Table: Computers: Demand, 2009-2016
Table: AV: Demand, 2009-2016
Table: Mobile Handsets: Demand, 2009-2015
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016
Chapter - Automotives
Singapore Automotives SWOT
Table: Singapore – Top 20 New Vehicle Registrations By Company, 4M12
Table: Registered Vehicles – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016 (CBUs)
Chapter - Demographic Data
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Singapore's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Singapore's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
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