Singapore Food and Drink Report Q4 2012

Private consumption growth in Singapore slowed to 1.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q212 from 4.7% in Q112, its worst performance since Q209. However, given the city-state’s robust employment, along with rising wages and stable asset prices, we expect private consumption to bounce back in the second half of the year. Singapore’s already tight labour market got even healthier in Q212, creating 29,200 new jobs as the overall unemployment rate (one of the lowest in the world) fell from 2.1% to 2.0%. Despite relatively soft overall economic growth, employers remain relatively optimistic regarding hiring prospects in the second half of the year. Moreover, the strong demand that we have seen in both housing and vehicle sales continue to point to the underlying strength of the Singaporean consumer. Although we have revised our private consumption growth outlook down to 4.5% from 5.3% previously in line with H112 numbers, we maintain a relatively sanguine outlook food and drink sector.

Headline Industry Data (local currency) ?? 2012 food consumption = +3.1%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast to 2016 = +3.2% ?? 2012 alcoholic drink value sales = +9.6%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +6.5% ?? 2012 soft drink value sales = +5.0%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +3.5% ?? 2012 mass grocery retail sales = +3.0%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +2.8%

Industry Trends & Developments A Mixed Bag Of Financial Results: Singapore-based cocoa ingredients and chocolate confectionery manufacturer Petra Foods has expressed concern over the expected decline in its cocoa ingredients business in 2012. The firm’s sales from cocoa ingredients fell around 13% y-o-y in Q112 (ended March) due to lower cocoa prices. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation from the firm’s cocoa ingredients division increased 1.4% y-o-y during the quarter. Singapore-based conglomerate Auric Pacific witnessed a mixed financial performance for the year ending December 2011. Auric Pacific reported revenue growth of 0.3% and net profit growth of 12.4% for the year ending December 2011. However, a closer look into Auric Pacific’s segment results reveals a mixed showing among its business divisions.

YHS And Fraser & Neave Facing Mixed Headwinds: Singapore-based soft drinks manufacturer Yeo Hiap Seng (YHS) reported revenue growth of 7.2% in its food and beverage division for the year ending December 2011. YHS’s robust revenue showing in FY2011 partly mirrors the underlying healthy demand Singapore Food & Drink Report Q4 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 8 conditions in its key markets of Singapore and Malaysia. Strong private consumption growth, increasing retail sales and higher tourism levels have supplied considerable momentum to the mass market, in turn translating into stronger sales opportunities for YHS’s soft drinks products. Meanwhile, 2012 is likely to prove a challenging year for trans-Asian soft drinks producer Fraser & Neave. Softening demand conditions across its Asian markets such as Thailand and the loss of bottling and distribution rights of The Coca-Cola Company’s beverage products in Malaysia and Singapore are expected to dampen its near-term sales prospects.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 - BMI Industry View

SWOT Analysis

Singapore Food Industry SWOT

Singapore Drink Industry SWOT

Singapore Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT

Chapter 2 - Business Environment

BMI’s Core Global Industry Views

Table: Core Views

Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings, Q (score out of )

Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings, Q

Singapore’s Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Economic Activity

Chapter 3 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Consumer Outlook

Food

Food Consumption

Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Canned Food

Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Confectionery

Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Organics

Table: Organic Food Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Drink

Hot Drinks

Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Alcoholic Drinks

Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Soft Drinks

Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Mass Grocery Retail

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Trade

Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, -

Chapter 4 - Food

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Baby Boom Presents Commercial Opportunities

Strengthening Procurement And Manufacturing Processes

Market Overview

Agriculture

Food Processing

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Chapter 5 - Drink

Key Industry Trends And Developments

YHS And F&N Witnessing Mixed Headwinds

International Expansion The Antidote To Domestic Market Saturation

Market Overview

Soft Drinks

Alcoholic Drinks

Hot Drinks

Chapter 6 - Mass Grocery Retail

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Carrefour Exiting Singapore

Domestic Retailers Expanding Overseas

Retailers Linking Up With Overseas Suppliers

Organised Retail To Gain Prominence

Market Overview

Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets, -

Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (US$bn), -

Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Market By Value (SGDbn), -

Table: Estimated Average Sales Per Outlet By Format,

Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format

Chapter 7 - Competitive Landscape

Table: Key Players In Singapore’s Food Sector

Table: Key Players In Singapore’s Drinks Sector

Table: Key Players In Singapore Mass Grocery Retail Sector

Chapter 8 - Company Monitor

Food

Auric Pacific

Petra Foods

Drink

Asia Pacific Breweries (APB)

Fraser & Neave (F&N)

Mass Grocery Retail

NTUC FairPrice

Sheng Siong

Chapter 9 - Country Snapshot

Table: Singapore’s Population By Age Group, - (‘)

Table: Singapore’s Population By Age Group, - (% of total)

Table: Singapore’s Key Population Ratios, -

Table: Singapore’s Rural And Urban Population, -

Chapter 10 - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology

BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary

Food & Drink

Mass Grocery Retail

Chapter 11 - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting And Sources

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

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Sources

Related research categories

By sector: General drinks

By market: Singapore (in Asia)