Serbia Retail Report Q1 2013
Report description
The Serbian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Serbia's economic outlook of extreme summer weather in 2012 hitting agricultural output.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Serbian retail market while minimising investment risk, and explores the impact of the eurozone crisis and declining remittances on the Serbian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Serbian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Serbia comes first out of 10 in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although its Risk rating is comparatively low.
Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales rising 19.2% between 2013 and 2016 to US$1.44bn. The consumer electronics sector is a relatively large, underdeveloped market offering growth potential in key digital products groups such as computers (12% penetration), notebook computers (23% CAGR projected), 3G handsets (70% CAGR) and LCD TV sets (18% CAGR).
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that, on March 1 2012, the EU awarded Serbia candidate status. Although Serbia is unlikely to join the EU before 2018, the accession process itself will provide the government with a policy anchor and development funds. We also expect investors to be enticed by the prospect of eventual access to the single market.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
?? BMI has revised down its forecast for Serbian real GDP growth in 2012 to -1.1% on the back of extreme summer weather hitting agricultural output. We expect the economy to return to growth of 1.9% in 2013 as the eurozone economy recovers and auto production increases.
?? Household spending growth rates are unlikely to rediscover their pre-2008 highs for years to come as the sector suffers from weak real wage growth and high unemployment. BMI forecasts real growth in private consumption of -0.5% in 2012 and 1.3% in 2013.
?? Following several months of positive growth early in 2012, retail sales contracted by 5.7% y-o-y in July. However, a stronger agriculture sector, recovering export demand and increased remittance flows should provide some support for private consumption growth in 2013.
Table of contents
Chapter - Executive Summary
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Serbia Retail Business Environment SWOT
Serbia Political SWOT
Serbia Economic SWOT
Chapter - Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Sales Indicators, 2011-2016
Organised Retail
Macroeconomic Outlook
Chapter - Regional Retail Outlook
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2009-2016
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn, unless stated)
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016
Regional Retail Trends
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
Serbia's Retail Rating
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Serbia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Leading Players
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2003-2010
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Value By Retail Format, 2003-2010
Table: Value Sales Per Outlet, 2010 Estimate
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Serbia Mass Grocery Retail – Value Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales Breakdown By Retail Format (% Of Total)
Industry Developments
Chapter - Consumer Electronics
Serbia Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016
AV Devices
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Electronics Market
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016
Industry Developments
Chapter - Automotives
Serbia Autos Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Automotive Production And Sales (CBUs), 2008-2016
Company Briefs
Trade
Table: Automotive Trade, 2008-2016
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Serbia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Serbia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources
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