Serbia Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
Report description
The outlook for the Serbian economy remains relatively grim. We revised down our expectations for Serbia's 2012 GDP growth to -1.1% on the back of extreme summer weather hitting agricultural output, although we do expect the economy to return to positive growth - of 1.9% - in 2013. That said, Serbia's attainment of EU candidate status in 2012 will provide an important boost to long-term growth prospects as the country restructures its economy, although we do not expect Serbia to join the bloc before 2020.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
? 2013 per capita food consumption: +2.3%; five-year forecast to 2017: +15.1%.
? 2013 alcoholic drinks value sales: +2.0%; five-year forecast to 2017: +11.3%.
? 2013 soft drinks value sales: +9.4%; five-year forecast to 2017: +71.5%.
? 2013 mass grocery retail sales: +5.2%; five-year forecast to 2017: +34.2%.
Key Industry Trends
MK Group Renews Bid For Hellenic Sugar: In autumn 2012, Serbian-based MK Group renewed its bid to acquire Greek sugar refiner Hellenic Sugar with the goal of increasing production and exports. New offers for an 82% stake in Hellenic Sugar have been invited after previous sale attempts failed. Senior officials at MK Group believe that there will not be much competition in the race to take over Hellenic and that the Commission for the Protection of Competition in Serbia will not block the bid a second time as happened earlier in the year.
Mercator Reorganises And Refocuses: In October 2012, Serbia's number two retailer Mercator announced plans to curb expansion through to 2016, to slash its debt by roughly EUR300mn and cut costs with the aim of optimising its operations. In early 2013 the group is to be reorganised, followed by the centralisation of support functions. The retailer is planning to consolidate the operations of its subsidiaries in Slovenia, Serbia, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, which will allow for a single, unified approach to suppliers and also optimise administration functions and IT support.
Key Risks To Outlook
Need For Further Fiscal Consolidation: Although the new government has implemented much-needed austerity measures, Serbia remains on a precarious fiscal trajectory, and we do not rule out the need for further fiscal consolidation.
Table of contents
Chapter - BMI Industry View
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Serbia Food Industry SWOT
Serbia Drink Industry SWOT
Serbia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Chapter - Business Environment
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
CEE Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings (scores out of 10)
Serbia's Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: GDP By Expenditure
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption.
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Snack Foods
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Meat
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Dairy
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Drink
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales Breakdown By Retail Format (% of total)
Trade
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Chapter - Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
MK Group Renews Bid To Acquire Hellenic Sugar
FrieslandCampina Abandons Plans To Acquire Serbian Dairies
IFC Provides Loan To MK Group
Serbian Future For Agricultural Exports Bright
EBRD Issues Loan To MK Group
Serbia Pushes Organic Food Development
Market Overview
Food Consumption
Food Production
Leading Players
Confectionery
Canned Food
Trade
Agriculture
Dairy Production
Sugar Production
Organic Agriculture
Chapter - Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Molson Coors Acquires StarBev
Nectar Expands Presence In South-East Europe
Beer Industry Aiming To Attract Investment
Market Overview
Beer
Spirits
Wine
Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Mercator Reorganises And Refocuses
Delhaize Reorganises In Serbia
Lidl Looks To Launch In Serbia
A New Expansion Frontier
Hypermarkets And Private Label On The Rise
Market Overview
Leading Players
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In Serbia's Food & Drink Sector
Table: Key Players In Serbia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Chapter - Company Monitor
Food
Bambi
Mondi Serbia
Mladost-Sid
Sunoko
Drink
Coca-Cola/IBP Beograd AD
Beogradska Industrija Piva (BIP)
Carlsberg Serbia/Pivara Celarevo
Apatinska Pivara (formerly AB InBev)
Arteska International Company
BB Minaqua
Knjaz Miloš
Mass Grocery Retail
Mercator
Veropoulos
Delta Holding
Metro
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Serbia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Serbia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
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The office is closed during weekends.
Current time at just-drinks headquarters: 2:51am (Thursday, 20 June 2013)
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