Saudi Arabia Retail Report Q4 2012

The Saudi Arabia Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact of the moderating pace of expenditure growth on Saudi Arabia's economic outlook.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Saudi retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of slowing export growth on the Saudi consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Saudi retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Saudi per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 31% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of only 2%. The country comes second (out of seven) in BMI's Middle East and Africa (MEA) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it underperforms significantly for risk. Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 49% between 2012 and 2016, from US$29.0bn to US$43.3bn, as high disposable incomes among a proportion of the population create an increasingly aspirational consumer base interested in premium products.

In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the fact that non-organised retail and independent outlets still account for more than 40% of total sales, which is strong evidence that significant scope remains for the penetration of organised grocery retailing.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views: ? Recently released leading indicator data have done nothing to dampen BMI's positive outlook on the Saudi Arabian economy. With fixed investment and government spending continuing to grow apace, we hold to our above-consensus forecast for real GDP growth of 5.2% in 2012, and have revised up our projection for 2013 from 4.1% to 4.5%.

? The prospects for household consumption in the near term are positive, with incomes across the country having been boosted by higher government spending on public-sector wages and social benefits. BMI is therefore forecasting private consumption growth of 6.0% in 2012.

Table of contents

BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis Saudi Arabia Retail Business Environment SWOT
Saudi Arabia Political SWOT
Saudi Arabia Economic SWOT Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Retail, 2009-2016
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Regional Retail Outlook Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2009-2016
Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (%)
Current Trends
Risk/Reward Ratings
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
Saudi Arabia's Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail Saudi Arabia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sector Structure – Estimated Sales Value By Format (US$bn)
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sector Structure – Estimated Sales Value By Format (US$bn)
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sector Structure – Estimated Sales Value By Format (SARbn)
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sector Structure – Estimated Sales Value By Format (SARbn) Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format
Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics Saudi Arabia Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Saudi Arabia Retail Report Q4 2012
Table: Computer Demand, 2008-2016 AV
Table: AV Demand, 2009-2016
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Handset Demand, 2008-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Electronics Market
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview
Industry Developments
Automotives
Saudi Arabia Autos SWOT Industry Forecast Scenario
Sales
Table: Autos Sales Forecast, 2010-2016
Table: Car Ownership, 2010-2016
Production Passenger Cars
Table: Top 10 Best-Selling Models 2011
Demographic Outlook Table: Saudi Arabia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Saudi Arabia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Saudi Arabia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Saudi Arabia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources

Related research categories

By sector: Retail (in Off-trade)

By market: Saudi Arabia (in Asia)