Romania Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
Report description
Unemployment has continued to decrease in 2012 amid an increase in consumer confidence. According to our Europe team, unemployment has fallen back towards post-crisis lows, reaching 4.5% in June 2012, and consumer confidence ticked up markedly, albeit from a very low base. But elsewhere the picture was not so positive, with retail sales growth averaging just 4.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q212 compared with a more robust 5.3% in Q112, and the contraction in consumer loan growth reaching 2.9% y-o-y in June compared with a contraction of just 1.6% back in March. The improvements bode well given the fundamental promise Romania provides with its relatively large population of about 21mn by regional standards.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
?? 2013 per capita food consumption = +4.8%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2017= 5.40
%?? 2013 mass grocery retail = +9.3%; forecast compound annual growth rate to 2017= +10.4
%Key Industry Trends And Developments
Reduction In Food VAT Necessary: The country's fruit and vegetable production was expected to be 40% lower in 2012 than in 2011, having been negatively affected by rising production costs and other existing financing issues, such as the lack of support for farmers from the agricultural ministry and adverse weather conditions. The Romanian Sales Association has said the Romanian market needs a reduction in VAT on food, from 24% to 9%, in order to boost local production and consumption. The reduction in VAT will reduce the shelf price for food products and thus boost consumption volumes, the association said.
Key Risks To Outlook
Political Tensions: Despite the concerns expressed about Prime Minister Victor Ponta's commitment to fiscal austerity and the democratic process, the EU and the IMF have for now at least shown a willingness to support the country by releasing the next tranche of the IMF Stand-By Arrangement. That said, further tense relations with multilateral bodies could result in currency and investor concerns.
Table of contents
Chapter - BMI Industry View
Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Romania Food Industry SWOT
Romania Drink Industry SWOT
Romania Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Chapter - Business Environment
BMI's Core Global Industry Views
Table: Core Views
CEE Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings (scores out of 10)
Romania's Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: GDP By Expenditure
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Meat
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Pasta
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Snack Foods
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Dairy
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Drink
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Table: Mass Grocery Retail By Format (%)
Trade
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
Chapter - Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Agricultural Output Affected By Drought And Rising Costs
Interest In Fast-Food Industry
Romanian Dairy Industry Remains Competitive
Development Of New Agricultural Segments
Market Overview
Food Consumption
Food Production
Leading Players
Meat Processing
Confectionery
Canned Food
Trade
Agriculture
Dairy Industry
Organic Farming
Chapter - Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Interested In Premium Wine
Bottled Water Industry Continues Investment
Beverage Segments Dented By Economic Downturn
Market Overview
Alcoholic Drinks
Beer
Wine
Spirits
Soft Drinks
Hot Drinks
Chapter - Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
MGR Players Continue To Expand Despite Economic Challenges
Market Overview
Leading Retailers
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Sector By Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2011
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Sector – Estimated Sales Value By Format, 2004-2011
Table: Structure Of Mass Grocery Retail Sector – Average Sales Value Per Retail Outlet, 2011
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In Romania's Food Sector
Table: Key Players In Romania's Drinks Sector
Table: Key Players In Romania's Mass Retail Grocery Sector
Chapter - Company Monitor
Food
Kandia Excelent
Vel Pitar
Nestlé Romania
Drink
Quadrant Amroq Beverages SA (QAB)/Pepsi Americas Romania
Brau Union Romania (Heineken)
SABMiller Romania
Bergenbier (StarBev)
Mass Grocery Retail
Metro Cash & Carry Romania
Rewe Romania
Hiparlo/Carrefour
Delhaize
Auchan
Chapter - Demographic Outlook
Table: Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Romania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Romania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
Chapter - Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Rewards
Table: Risks
Weighting
Table: Weighting
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
Chapter - BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
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