Retail Forecasts H2 2012: UK Sector Summary
Report description
A unique forecasting tool providing dynamic forecasts and analysis of market demand and price pressures. A Sector Summary Report and seven UK sector and two UK channel forecasts are available (Clothing & Footwear, DIY & Gardening, Electricals, Furniture & Floorcoverings, Food & Grocery, Health & Beauty, Homewares, DIY Superstores).
- Brief review of economic trends and how they impact retail, explaining how we believe key economic metrics will evolve over the next two years
- Forecasts of how overall retail and retail sectors will fare over the next ten quarters, examining volume, inflation and overall growth rates
- Category level forecasts are provided to fully inform growth strategies
2012 retail growth 0.8% – deterioration in wider economy slows retail growth. Growth to be driven by food & grocery (3.0%), clothing & footwear (2.3%) and health & beauty (2.5%).
Home categories decline further. Wet summer decimates DIY & Gardening sales in H1 as sector declines 5.5% for the year. Furniture & floorcoverings and electricals remain in negative territory, only homewares forecast to grow marginally, the first time the sector has done so since 2008.
Lower non-food inflation in H2 is offset by price pressures in food. Inflation in food remains peaking at 3.4% in Q4, the highest since 2009, as costs for meat, oil and sugars increase. As the VAT increase comes out of annual comparisons and demand remains weak, inflation is flat for non-food in Q3 while deflation occurs (-0.3%) in Q4.
- How long will the double dip recession last and what impact will this have on the retail sector?
- When should I plan for an economic recovery?
- Which retail sectors will perform the best through 2012–14? Which sectors should my business focus on?
- How will the Olympics impact retail spending in Q3 2012?
Table of contents
IntroductionA unique forecasting tool providing dynamic forecasts and analysis of market demand and price pressures. A Sector Summary Report and seven UK sector and two UK channel forecasts are available (Clothing & Footwear, DIY & Gardening, Electricals, Furniture & Floorcoverings, Food & Grocery, Health & Beauty, Homewares, DIY Superstores).
Features and benefits
Brief review of economic trends and how they impact retail, explaining how we believe key economic metrics will evolve over the next two years
Forecasts of how overall retail and retail sectors will fare over the next ten quarters, examining volume, inflation and overall growth rates
Category level forecasts are provided to fully inform growth strategies
Highlights
2012 retail growth 0.8% – deterioration in wider economy slows retail growth. Growth to be driven by food & grocery (3.0%), clothing & footwear (2.3%) and health & beauty (2.5%).
Home categories decline further. Wet summer decimates DIY & Gardening sales in H1 as sector declines 5.5% for the year. Furniture & floorcoverings and electricals remain in negative territory, only homewares forecast to grow marginally, the first time the sector has done so since 2008.
Lower non-food inflation in H2 is offset by price pressures in food. Inflation in food remains peaking at 3.4% in Q4, the highest since 2009, as costs for meat, oil and sugars increase. As the VAT increase comes out of annual comparisons and demand remains weak, inflation is flat for non-food in Q3 while deflation occurs (-0.3%) in Q4.
Your key questions answered
How long will the double dip recession last and what impact will this have on the retail sector?
When should I plan for an economic recovery?
Which retail sectors will perform the best through 2012–14? Which sectors should my business focus on?
How will the Olympics impact retail spending in Q3 2012?
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