Retail Forecasts H1 2013: UK Sector Summary
Report description
A unique forecasting tool providing dynamic forecasts and analysis of market demand and price pressures. A Sector Summary Report and seven UK sector and two UK channel forecasts are available (Clothing & Footwear, DIY & Gardening, Electricals, Furniture & Floorcoverings, Food & Grocery, Health & Beauty, Homewares, DIY Superstores).
- Brief review of economic trends and how they impact retail, explaining how we believe key economic metrics will evolve over the next two years
- Forecasts of how overall retail and retail sectors will fare over the next ten quarters, examining volume, inflation and overall growth rates
- Category level forecasts are provided to fully inform growth strategies
The UK exited a double-dip recession following GDP growth in Q3 2012, though this had little impact on consumer confidence and we expect this recovery to be short lived with Q4 contracting once again. Issues in the Eurozone continue to impinge trade and weak global demand will prolong impacts on UK exports.
Inflation is easing, but prices are still rising. The higher cost of food will force consumers to cut back on more discretionary sectors, particularly since growth in disposable income will be muted in 2013 putting continued pressure on budgets
A sustained period of high unemployment over the next five years coupled with low wage growth and the prospect of more job cuts will contribute to weak volume growth across retail sectors. High unemployment among younger consumers and the rising cost of tuition and living expenses will hit discretionary clothing purchases
- Will the UK fall into another recession in 2013 and what impact will this have on the retail sector?
- When should I plan for an economic recovery? When will the housing market start to recover and what impact will this have on home related categories?
- Which retail sectors will perform the best through 2013–15? Which sectors should my business focus on?
- What impact will food inflation have on the total retail market and when do we expect price pressures to ease?
Table of contents
OVERVIEW•Summary
•Methodology
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
•Introduction
•Scope
•Methodology
•Principle Sources
UK QUARTERLY FORECAST SUMMARY
•A review of H2 2012 and a look ahead
UK exits double-dip recession
Food inflation sends retail prices even higher
Housing transactions forecast to grow for the first time in two years
No letting up for retailers as 2013 is set to be another challenging year
APPENDIX
•Definitions
Current Prices
Constant Prices
Volume Growth
Inflation
Total Growth
Percentage point difference with Total Retail
Health & beauty forecasting changes
DIY & Gardening forecasting changes
•Help and tips to use the quarterly forecasts
Printing
Copying data to Excel
Viewing
Inserting slides into your own presentations
•Ask the analyst
•Disclaimer
TABLES
•Table: Principle sources of data and information
FIGURES
•Figure: Verdict forecasting methodology
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