Retail Forecasts H1 2013: UK Food & Grocery
Report description
A unique forecasting tool providing dynamic forecasts and analysis of market demand and price pressures. Inflation, volume and value growth are estimated quarterly to Q2 2015 to give market size and trends. This is a sector report covering the UK Food & Grocery market analysed by sub-categories - Food, Soft Drinks, Alcoholic Drinks, Tobacco & Household goods.
- Create long term business plans based on how we forecast key economic metrics will evolve over the next two years
- Plan your pricing strategies by understanding the course inflation will take over the next two years in the food and grocery sector
- Develop decision making based on consumer, economic and sector specific forecasts
- Mitigate against the risk of continued dropping volumes caused by ongoing inflation
Inflation continues to drive growth in the food & grocery sector, and will remain high throughout 2012 and 2013, before starting to decline at the end of the forecasting period. Increased global demand, and droughts during 2012 have meant that cost prices have continued to rise, and retailers will find it increasingly difficult to protect shoppers
Volume growth is low, as shoppers continue along the route of waste minimisation and budgeting to counteract inflation not only in food, but in everyday living costs. While improvements in the economy will slowly begin to make things easier for shoppers, it will take a while before they revert to old habits, and we see significant volume growth
Food & grocery has a real impact on the direction of total retail, it will contribute 45.4% of total retail spending in 2013. As almost half of what shoppers spend in the UK is highly inflationary, and suffering from weak volume growth, the course of total retail will follow a very similar path to the food & grocery sector in 2013 and 2014.
- When will volumes in the market begin to recover? Will we see further basket size reductions?
- What are the drivers of inflation in the food & grocery sector? Which product categories are hit hardest?
- How can retailers address consumers price sensitivity and fulfill demand for bargain hunting?
- What are the key growth sectors in the market? Which product categories will prove most challenging?
- What impact will the economy have on food & grocery retail and how should I build this into my sales forecasts?
Table of contents
OVERVIEW•Summary
•Methodology
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
•Introduction
•Scope
•Methodology
•Principle Sources
UK QUARTERLY FORECAST SUMMARY
•A review of H2 2012 and a look ahead
UK exits double-dip recession
Food inflation sends retail prices even higher
Housing transactions forecast to grow for the first time in two years
No letting up for retailers as 2013 is set to be another challenging year
APPENDIX
•Definitions
Current Prices
?Constant Prices
?Volume Growth
?Inflation
?Total Growth
?Percentage point difference with Total Retail
?Health & beauty forecasting changes
?DIY & Gardening forecasting changes
•Help and tips to use the quarterly forecasts
?Printing
?Copying data to Excel
?Viewing
?Inserting slides into your own presentations
•Ask the analyst
•Disclaimer
TABLES
•Table: Principle sources of data and information
FIGURES
•Figure: Verdict forecasting methodology
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