Retail Forecasts H1 2012: UK Food & Grocery
A unique forecasting tool providing dynamic forecasts and analysis of market demand and price pressures. Inflation, volume and value growth are estimated quarterly to Q2 2014 to give market size and trends. This is a sector report covering the UK Food & Grocery market analysed by sub-categories - Food, Soft Drinks, Alcoholic Drinks, Tobacco & Household goods.
- Brief review of economic trends and how they impact retail, explaining how we believe key economic metrics will evolve over the next two years
- Forecasts of how overall retail and the food retail sector will fare over the next ten quarters, examining volume, inflation and overall growth rates
- Category level forecasts are provided to fully inform growth strategies
Overall 2012 retail growth is forecast at 1.2% - the third lowest growth rate in 40 years. This is driven by food & grocery, clothing & footwear and health & beauty
Food & grocery growth for 2012 is forecast at 3.2% driven primarily by ongoing inflation as volumes remain relatively flat
Consumers remain frugal seeking to minimise waste by reducing volumes, making more frequent shopping trips to convenience stores instead of completing a big weekly shop. Bargain hunting remains important but coupons and discounting replace multi-buys
- When will food & grocery inflation begin to ease?
- How has consumer behaviour changed in the current austere climate? And what changes will be long-term?
- How can retailers address consumers price sensitivity and fulfill demand for bargain hunting?
- When will food & grocery volumes start to recover growth?
Table of contents
UK QUARTERLY FORECAST SUMMARY
•A review of H2 2011 and a look ahead
Christmas a mixed bag
Difficult environment illustrated by casualties
UK economic situation deteriorates
… and youth unemployment will harm specific sectors
Percentage point difference with Total Retail
Health & beauty forecasting changes
DIY & Gardening forecasting changes
•Help and tips to use the quarterly forecasts
Copying data to Excel
Inserting slides into your own presentations
•Ask the analyst
•Table: Principle sources of data and information
•Figure: Verdict forecasting methodology
The just-drinks office is currently: Closed
Office opening hours
The office is closed during weekends.
Current time at just-drinks headquarters: 10:04pm (Thursday, 23 May 2013)