Poland Retail Report Q4 2012

The Polish Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Poland's economic outlook of the austere 2012 public budget passed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, which will drag on domestic demand and consumer spending. The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Polish retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the negative effects of the eurozone crisis, together with domestic austerity, on the Polish consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Polish retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Polish per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 34% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 44%. The country comes sixth (out of 10) in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, and outperforms slightly for Risk.

Among all retail categories, Mass Grocery Retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales expected to grow by 75% throughout the forecast period, reaching US$46.44bn by 2016. BMI forecasts hypermarkets to outperform the rest of the MGR sector, with sales expected to rise by almost 79% over the forecast period. Poland is one of the key MGR markets in the CEE region: with disposable incomes rising, more Polish consumers are converting to modern retail formats. In the competitive arena, BMI sees continuing upside potential from the senate vote in 2007 against a law that would have imposed construction restrictions on hypermarkets. The ruling has paved the way for Poland's major operators to continue unfettered with their expansion plans.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views: ?? BMI forecasts Polish real GDP growth to slow from 4.3% in 2011 to 2.5% in 2012, substantially below consensus expectations. Fiscal consolidation and slower investment growth will make Poland more vulnerable to a contraction in the eurozone.

?? BMI forecasts household consumption to grow by a tepid 1.0% in 2012. We see little scope for real wage growth to increase much beyond the 0.7% it averaged in 2011. Although we forecast inflation to fall from 4.3% in 2011 to 3.3% by end-2012, real wage growth will be contained by relatively high unemployment (13.3% in March) amidst a weakening economy. Poland Retail Report Q4 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6

?? Retail sales data suggest that private consumption is already weakening. Commentators have focused on headline nominal retail sales growth in Q112, which grew by 12.9% on Q111, but missed less impressive volume numbers, which increased only 0.4% y-o-y in Q112. Inflation, and the lagged effect of a weak zloty in H211 on import prices in particular, are likely to explain much of this difference.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

Chapter 2 - SWOT Analysis

Poland Retail Business Environment SWOT

Poland Political SWOT

Poland Economic SWOT

Chapter 3 - Business Environment Outlook

Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Business Environment Ratings

Poland’s Retail Rating

Limits to Potential Returns

Risks To Realisation Of Returns

Chapter 4 - Market Overview

Current Trends

Key Players

Chapter 5 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Consumer Outlook

Table: BMI Food And Drink Emerging Markets Titans Index

Retail Growth Outlook

Table: Poland Retail Sales Indicators,

Table: Retail Sales By Key Segment, f

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Poland Economic Activity,

Chapter 6 - Regional Retail Outlook

Table: Regional Retail Trends,

Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share,

Regional Retail Trends

Chapter 7 - Mass Grocery Retail

Poland Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT

Market Overview

Leading Retailers

Table: Structure Of Poland’s MGR Market By Value, (US$bn)

Table: Structure Of Poland’s MGR Market By Value, (US$bn) (PLNbn)

Mass Grocery Retail

Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format – Historical Data And Forecasts

Table: Grocery Retail Sales Breakdown By Type, And

Industry Developments

Chapter 8 - Consumer Electronics

Poland Consumer Electronics Market SWOT

Market Overview

Computers

Table: PC Sales,

AV Devices

Table: AV Device Sales,

Mobile Communications

Table: Mobile Communications Demand,

Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Consumer Electronics Sales Overview, (US$mn)

Industry Developments

Chapter 9 - Automotives

Poland Auto Industry SWOT

Market Overview

Investment Climate

Industry Forecast Scenario

Production And Sales

Table: Auto Production And Sales,

Trade

Industry Developments

Chapter 10 - Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data

Section : Population

Table: Demographic Indicators,

Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown,

Section : Education And Healthcare

Table: Education,

Table: Vital Statistics,

Section : Labour Market And Spending Power

Table: Employment Indicators,

Table: Consumer Expenditure, (US$)

Table: Average Annual Wages,

Chapter 11 - BMI Methodology

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Sources

Related research categories

By sector: Retail (in Off-trade)

By market: Poland (in Europe)